Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
Abstract Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low‐temperature exposure but may n...
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doaj-771069dc2a5d438b8ca82a5b560b2c5a2021-06-22T01:41:53ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582021-06-0111128332834610.1002/ece3.7663Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly speciesPhilippe Tremblay0Heath A. MacMillan1Heather M. Kharouba2Department of Biology University of Ottawa Ottawa ON CanadaDepartment of Biology Carleton University Ottawa ON CanadaDepartment of Biology University of Ottawa Ottawa ON CanadaAbstract Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low‐temperature exposure but may not have become cold‐tolerant yet. In this study, we integrated organismal thermal tolerance measures into species distribution models for larvae of the Giant Swallowtail butterfly, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), living at the northern edge of its actively expanding range. Cold hardiness of field‐collected larvae was determined using three common metrics of cold‐induced physiological thresholds: the supercooling point, critical thermal minimum, and survival following cold exposure. P. cresphontes larvae were determined to be tolerant of chilling but generally die at temperatures below their SCP, suggesting they are chill‐tolerant or modestly freeze‐avoidant. Using this information, we examined the importance of low temperatures at a broad scale, by comparing species distribution models of P. cresphontes based only on environmental data derived from other sources to models that also included the cold tolerance parameters generated experimentally. Our modeling revealed that growing degree‐days and precipitation best predicted the distribution of P. cresphontes, while the cold tolerance variables did not explain much variation in habitat suitability. As such, the modeling results were consistent with our experimental results: Low temperatures in autumn are unlikely to limit the distribution of P. cresphontes. Understanding the factors that limit species distributions is key to predicting how climate change will drive species range shifts.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7663cold distribution limitsglobal warminginsectMaxentmechanistic species distribution model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Philippe Tremblay Heath A. MacMillan Heather M. Kharouba |
spellingShingle |
Philippe Tremblay Heath A. MacMillan Heather M. Kharouba Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species Ecology and Evolution cold distribution limits global warming insect Maxent mechanistic species distribution model |
author_facet |
Philippe Tremblay Heath A. MacMillan Heather M. Kharouba |
author_sort |
Philippe Tremblay |
title |
Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species |
title_short |
Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species |
title_full |
Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species |
title_fullStr |
Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species |
title_full_unstemmed |
Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species |
title_sort |
autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species |
publisher |
Wiley |
series |
Ecology and Evolution |
issn |
2045-7758 |
publishDate |
2021-06-01 |
description |
Abstract Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low‐temperature exposure but may not have become cold‐tolerant yet. In this study, we integrated organismal thermal tolerance measures into species distribution models for larvae of the Giant Swallowtail butterfly, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), living at the northern edge of its actively expanding range. Cold hardiness of field‐collected larvae was determined using three common metrics of cold‐induced physiological thresholds: the supercooling point, critical thermal minimum, and survival following cold exposure. P. cresphontes larvae were determined to be tolerant of chilling but generally die at temperatures below their SCP, suggesting they are chill‐tolerant or modestly freeze‐avoidant. Using this information, we examined the importance of low temperatures at a broad scale, by comparing species distribution models of P. cresphontes based only on environmental data derived from other sources to models that also included the cold tolerance parameters generated experimentally. Our modeling revealed that growing degree‐days and precipitation best predicted the distribution of P. cresphontes, while the cold tolerance variables did not explain much variation in habitat suitability. As such, the modeling results were consistent with our experimental results: Low temperatures in autumn are unlikely to limit the distribution of P. cresphontes. Understanding the factors that limit species distributions is key to predicting how climate change will drive species range shifts. |
topic |
cold distribution limits global warming insect Maxent mechanistic species distribution model |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7663 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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