Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia
At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided...
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2011-09-01
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doaj-788d0464508f47aeb6265e6fb50bc87a2020-11-24T21:45:54ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592011-09-011791608161410.3201/eid1709.102012Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, AustraliaPhilip R.A. BakerJiandong SunJames MorrisAmanda DinesAt the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model’s predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model’s usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17/9/10-2012_articlevirusesinfluenzahuman influenzainfluenza A viruspandemic (H1N1) 2009pandemic |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Philip R.A. Baker Jiandong Sun James Morris Amanda Dines |
spellingShingle |
Philip R.A. Baker Jiandong Sun James Morris Amanda Dines Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia Emerging Infectious Diseases viruses influenza human influenza influenza A virus pandemic (H1N1) 2009 pandemic |
author_facet |
Philip R.A. Baker Jiandong Sun James Morris Amanda Dines |
author_sort |
Philip R.A. Baker |
title |
Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia |
title_short |
Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia |
title_full |
Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia |
title_fullStr |
Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia |
title_sort |
epidemiologic modeling with flusurge for pandemic (h1n1) 2009 outbreak, queensland, australia |
publisher |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
series |
Emerging Infectious Diseases |
issn |
1080-6040 1080-6059 |
publishDate |
2011-09-01 |
description |
At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model’s predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model’s usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency. |
topic |
viruses influenza human influenza influenza A virus pandemic (H1N1) 2009 pandemic |
url |
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17/9/10-2012_article |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT philiprabaker epidemiologicmodelingwithflusurgeforpandemich1n12009outbreakqueenslandaustralia AT jiandongsun epidemiologicmodelingwithflusurgeforpandemich1n12009outbreakqueenslandaustralia AT jamesmorris epidemiologicmodelingwithflusurgeforpandemich1n12009outbreakqueenslandaustralia AT amandadines epidemiologicmodelingwithflusurgeforpandemich1n12009outbreakqueenslandaustralia |
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1725903428260986880 |