A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science
Computer-based disease spread models are frequently used in veterinary science to simulate disease spread. They are used to predict the impacts of the disease, plan and assess surveillance, or control strategies, and provide insights about disease causation by comparing model outputs with real life...
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doaj-795c87eaa2c34f6d84154b320bb1d2582021-01-26T08:51:28ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Veterinary Science2297-17692021-01-01710.3389/fvets.2020.546651546651A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary ScienceCarsten Kirkeby0Victoria J. Brookes1Victoria J. Brookes2Michael P. Ward3Salome Dürr4Tariq Halasa5Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, DenmarkSchool of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Faculty of Science, Charles Sturt University, Wagga, NSW, AustraliaGraham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (Charles Sturt University and NSW Department of Primary Industries), Wagga, NSW, AustraliaFaculty of Veterinary Science, Sydney School of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaDepartment of Clinical Research and Public Health, Veterinary Public Health Institute, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandDepartment of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, DenmarkComputer-based disease spread models are frequently used in veterinary science to simulate disease spread. They are used to predict the impacts of the disease, plan and assess surveillance, or control strategies, and provide insights about disease causation by comparing model outputs with real life data. There are many types of disease spread models, and here we present and describe the implementation of a particular type: individual-based models. Our aim is to provide a practical introduction to building individual-based disease spread models. We also introduce code examples with the goal to make these techniques more accessible to those who are new to the field. We describe the important steps in building such models before, during and after the programming stage, including model verification (to ensure that the model does what was intended), validation (to investigate whether the model results reflect the modeled system), and convergence analysis (to ensure models of endemic diseases are stable before outputs are collected). We also describe how sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the potential impact of uncertainty about model parameters. Finally, we provide an overview of some interesting recent developments in the field of disease spread models.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2020.546651/fullsimulation modeltransmission modeldisease dynamicsmechanistic modeldisease model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Carsten Kirkeby Victoria J. Brookes Victoria J. Brookes Michael P. Ward Salome Dürr Tariq Halasa |
spellingShingle |
Carsten Kirkeby Victoria J. Brookes Victoria J. Brookes Michael P. Ward Salome Dürr Tariq Halasa A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science Frontiers in Veterinary Science simulation model transmission model disease dynamics mechanistic model disease model |
author_facet |
Carsten Kirkeby Victoria J. Brookes Victoria J. Brookes Michael P. Ward Salome Dürr Tariq Halasa |
author_sort |
Carsten Kirkeby |
title |
A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science |
title_short |
A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science |
title_full |
A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science |
title_fullStr |
A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science |
title_sort |
practical introduction to mechanistic modeling of disease transmission in veterinary science |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
series |
Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
issn |
2297-1769 |
publishDate |
2021-01-01 |
description |
Computer-based disease spread models are frequently used in veterinary science to simulate disease spread. They are used to predict the impacts of the disease, plan and assess surveillance, or control strategies, and provide insights about disease causation by comparing model outputs with real life data. There are many types of disease spread models, and here we present and describe the implementation of a particular type: individual-based models. Our aim is to provide a practical introduction to building individual-based disease spread models. We also introduce code examples with the goal to make these techniques more accessible to those who are new to the field. We describe the important steps in building such models before, during and after the programming stage, including model verification (to ensure that the model does what was intended), validation (to investigate whether the model results reflect the modeled system), and convergence analysis (to ensure models of endemic diseases are stable before outputs are collected). We also describe how sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the potential impact of uncertainty about model parameters. Finally, we provide an overview of some interesting recent developments in the field of disease spread models. |
topic |
simulation model transmission model disease dynamics mechanistic model disease model |
url |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2020.546651/full |
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