Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications
Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors,...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2012-06-01
|
Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1937/2012/nhess-12-1937-2012.pdf |
id |
doaj-7988760333974d0baed4664885e35c31 |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-7988760333974d0baed4664885e35c312020-11-24T22:40:06ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812012-06-011261937194710.5194/nhess-12-1937-2012Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replicationsM. GunsV. VanackerStatistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression. This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications, combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for statistical analyses of natural hazards.http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1937/2012/nhess-12-1937-2012.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
M. Guns V. Vanacker |
spellingShingle |
M. Guns V. Vanacker Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
author_facet |
M. Guns V. Vanacker |
author_sort |
M. Guns |
title |
Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications |
title_short |
Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications |
title_full |
Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications |
title_fullStr |
Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications |
title_full_unstemmed |
Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications |
title_sort |
logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
issn |
1561-8633 1684-9981 |
publishDate |
2012-06-01 |
description |
Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression. This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications, combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for statistical analyses of natural hazards. |
url |
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1937/2012/nhess-12-1937-2012.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT mguns logisticregressionappliedtonaturalhazardsrareeventlogisticregressionwithreplications AT vvanacker logisticregressionappliedtonaturalhazardsrareeventlogisticregressionwithreplications |
_version_ |
1725705862694043648 |