Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model

There are many risk factors and large uncertainties in expressway nighttime maintenance construction(ENMC), and the state of risk factors will change dynamically with time. In this study, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was proposed to investigate the dynamic characteristics of the time-vary...

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Main Authors:	Tian Zhen, Fan Jinhua, Chen Qianqian, Hu Huaichen, Shen Yanyang
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	EDP Sciences 2021-01-01
Series:	E3S Web of Conferences
Online Access:	https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/33/e3sconf_aesee2021_02047.pdf

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spelling	doaj-7d3198f8f42242c3a453392fbd95f1892021-05-28T12:42:07ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422021-01-012570204710.1051/e3sconf/202125702047e3sconf_aesee2021_02047Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network modelTian Zhen0Fan Jinhua1Chen Qianqian2Hu Huaichen3Shen Yanyang4South China University of Technology, School of Mechanical and Automotive EngineeringSouth China University of Technology, School of Mechanical and Automotive EngineeringSouth China University of Technology, School of Mechanical and Automotive EngineeringSouth China University of Technology, School of Mechanical and Automotive EngineeringSouth China University of Technology, School of Mechanical and Automotive EngineeringThere are many risk factors and large uncertainties in expressway nighttime maintenance construction(ENMC), and the state of risk factors will change dynamically with time. In this study, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was proposed to investigate the dynamic characteristics of the time-varying probability of traffic accidents during expressway maintenance at night. Combined with Leaky Noisy-or gate extended model, the calculation method of conditional probability is determined . By setting evidences for DBN reasoning, the time series change curve of the probability of traffic accidents and other risk factors are obtained. The results show that DBN can be applied to risk assessment of ENMC.https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/33/e3sconf_aesee2021_02047.pdf
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Tian Zhen Fan Jinhua Chen Qianqian Hu Huaichen Shen Yanyang
spellingShingle	Tian Zhen Fan Jinhua Chen Qianqian Hu Huaichen Shen Yanyang Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model E3S Web of Conferences
author_facet	Tian Zhen Fan Jinhua Chen Qianqian Hu Huaichen Shen Yanyang
author_sort	Tian Zhen
title	Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model
title_short	Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model
title_full	Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model
title_fullStr	Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model
title_full_unstemmed	Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model
title_sort	study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: a dynamic bayesian network model
publisher	EDP Sciences
series	E3S Web of Conferences
issn	2267-1242
publishDate	2021-01-01
description	There are many risk factors and large uncertainties in expressway nighttime maintenance construction(ENMC), and the state of risk factors will change dynamically with time. In this study, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was proposed to investigate the dynamic characteristics of the time-varying probability of traffic accidents during expressway maintenance at night. Combined with Leaky Noisy-or gate extended model, the calculation method of conditional probability is determined . By setting evidences for DBN reasoning, the time series change curve of the probability of traffic accidents and other risk factors are obtained. The results show that DBN can be applied to risk assessment of ENMC.
url	https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2021/33/e3sconf_aesee2021_02047.pdf
work_keys_str_mv	AT tianzhen studyonriskassessmentofexpresswaynighttimemaintenanceconstructionadynamicbayesiannetworkmodel AT fanjinhua studyonriskassessmentofexpresswaynighttimemaintenanceconstructionadynamicbayesiannetworkmodel AT chenqianqian studyonriskassessmentofexpresswaynighttimemaintenanceconstructionadynamicbayesiannetworkmodel AT huhuaichen studyonriskassessmentofexpresswaynighttimemaintenanceconstructionadynamicbayesiannetworkmodel AT shenyanyang studyonriskassessmentofexpresswaynighttimemaintenanceconstructionadynamicbayesiannetworkmodel
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Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model

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