Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics
Background: The aim of this research is to assess the predictive accuracy of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) – an innovative tool for prompt identification of the causative agent of infectious diseases during outbreaks – when field epidemiological data collected from a novel outbreak of unknown...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Elsevier
2021-01-01
|
Series: | Journal of Infection and Public Health |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034120307541 |
id |
doaj-7ea3dd9c0efb49d5be64b8f92a896d24 |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-7ea3dd9c0efb49d5be64b8f92a896d242021-01-30T04:27:06ZengElsevierJournal of Infection and Public Health1876-03412021-01-01141123130Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemicsFederico Baldassi0Orlando Cenciarelli1Andrea Malizia2Pasquale Gaudio3Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Italy; Corresponding author at: via del Politecnico, 1, Rome, Italy.International CBRNe Master Courses, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, ItalyDepartment of Biomedicine and Prevention, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, ItalyDepartment of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, ItalyBackground: The aim of this research is to assess the predictive accuracy of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) – an innovative tool for prompt identification of the causative agent of infectious diseases during outbreaks – when field epidemiological data collected from a novel outbreak of unknown origin are analysed by the tool. For this reason, it has been taken into account the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, which began in China at the end of December 2019, has rapidly spread around the globe, and it has led to a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), declared to the 30th of January 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Methods: The IDS takes advantage of an off-line database, built before the COVID-19 pandemic, which represents a pivotal characteristic for working without an internet connection. The software has been tested using the epidemiological data available in different and progressive stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. As a comparison, the results of the tests performed using the epidemiological data from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemic in 2002 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in 2012, are shown. Results: The overall outcomes provided by the software are comforting, as a matter of the fact that IDS has identified with a good accuracy the SARS and MERS epidemics (over 90%), while, as expected, it has not provided erroneous and equivocal readings after the elaboration COVID-19 epidemic data. Conclusions: Even though IDS has not recognized the COVID-19 epidemic, it has not given to the end user a false result and wrong interpretation, as expected by the developers. For this reason, IDS reveals itself as useful software to identify a possible epidemic or outbreak. Thus, the intention of developers is to plan, once the software will be released, dedicated updates and upgrades of the database (e.g., SARS-CoV-2) in order to keep this tool increasingly useful and applicable to reality.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034120307541Novel coronavirusCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS)Epidemiology |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Federico Baldassi Orlando Cenciarelli Andrea Malizia Pasquale Gaudio |
spellingShingle |
Federico Baldassi Orlando Cenciarelli Andrea Malizia Pasquale Gaudio Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics Journal of Infection and Public Health Novel coronavirus COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) Epidemiology |
author_facet |
Federico Baldassi Orlando Cenciarelli Andrea Malizia Pasquale Gaudio |
author_sort |
Federico Baldassi |
title |
Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics |
title_short |
Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics |
title_full |
Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics |
title_fullStr |
Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics |
title_sort |
testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the infectious diseases seeker (ids) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (covid-19) outbreak with the past sars and mers epidemics |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
Journal of Infection and Public Health |
issn |
1876-0341 |
publishDate |
2021-01-01 |
description |
Background: The aim of this research is to assess the predictive accuracy of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) – an innovative tool for prompt identification of the causative agent of infectious diseases during outbreaks – when field epidemiological data collected from a novel outbreak of unknown origin are analysed by the tool. For this reason, it has been taken into account the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, which began in China at the end of December 2019, has rapidly spread around the globe, and it has led to a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), declared to the 30th of January 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Methods: The IDS takes advantage of an off-line database, built before the COVID-19 pandemic, which represents a pivotal characteristic for working without an internet connection. The software has been tested using the epidemiological data available in different and progressive stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. As a comparison, the results of the tests performed using the epidemiological data from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemic in 2002 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in 2012, are shown. Results: The overall outcomes provided by the software are comforting, as a matter of the fact that IDS has identified with a good accuracy the SARS and MERS epidemics (over 90%), while, as expected, it has not provided erroneous and equivocal readings after the elaboration COVID-19 epidemic data. Conclusions: Even though IDS has not recognized the COVID-19 epidemic, it has not given to the end user a false result and wrong interpretation, as expected by the developers. For this reason, IDS reveals itself as useful software to identify a possible epidemic or outbreak. Thus, the intention of developers is to plan, once the software will be released, dedicated updates and upgrades of the database (e.g., SARS-CoV-2) in order to keep this tool increasingly useful and applicable to reality. |
topic |
Novel coronavirus COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) Epidemiology |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034120307541 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT federicobaldassi testingtheidentificationeffectivenessofanunknownoutbreakoftheinfectiousdiseasesseekeridsusingandcomparingthenovelcoronavirusdiseasecovid19outbreakwiththepastsarsandmersepidemics AT orlandocenciarelli testingtheidentificationeffectivenessofanunknownoutbreakoftheinfectiousdiseasesseekeridsusingandcomparingthenovelcoronavirusdiseasecovid19outbreakwiththepastsarsandmersepidemics AT andreamalizia testingtheidentificationeffectivenessofanunknownoutbreakoftheinfectiousdiseasesseekeridsusingandcomparingthenovelcoronavirusdiseasecovid19outbreakwiththepastsarsandmersepidemics AT pasqualegaudio testingtheidentificationeffectivenessofanunknownoutbreakoftheinfectiousdiseasesseekeridsusingandcomparingthenovelcoronavirusdiseasecovid19outbreakwiththepastsarsandmersepidemics |
_version_ |
1724318185690234880 |