Directions for the forecast analysis of the life cycle of real estate development projects

• Main Author: Elena A. Gusakova
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (MGSU) 2019-09-01
• Series: Vestnik MGSU
• Subjects: project life cycle; real estate development; early design stages; forecast analysis; strategic planning
• Online Access: http://vestnikmgsu.ru/ru/component/sjarchive/issue/article.download/2019/9/1196-1204

Introduction. Analytical studies show that monopolization, disparity trends, oversupply, and limited effectual demand become the long-term reality of the real estate market. Such a state of the market stimulates a change of ideas about a successful development project, puts in several relevant and in-demand research of new approaches and concepts of the life cycle of real estate development projects. Materials and methods. The article studies the best Russian and international practices of strategic planning of development projects using the methods of analysis and synthesis of accumulated representative experience. Results. We identified and systematized the main, topical and most popular areas of forecast analysis, which determine the specifics and strategy of development projects. These include studies of the long-term development trend of the region, analysis of the most likely scenarios for the full life cycle of the project and its harmonization with the development trend of the territory, involvement of the interests and needs of the territorial community in the project, analysis of the project’s suitability to the most likely development scenarios, study of the possibilities of consolidating the most significant positive effects life cycle and multiplicative effects of the project. Conclusions. The considered areas of strategic forecast analysis make it possible to withstand the strategy of a real estate development project at all stages of construction and, as a result, manage its life cycle from the project idea to the completion of the project. Prospects and further research include the study of methods of project life cycle management as an element of the life support environment, the subject interpretation of methods and the solution of problems of informatization of models and methods of planning a project strategy.