Role of CO<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis
We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (<i>F</i><sub>TA</sub>) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961–2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and ampl...
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Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2016-09-01
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Series: | Biogeosciences |
Online Access: | http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/5121/2016/bg-13-5121-2016.pdf |
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doaj-8410e359764748de8fe6f48783105113 |
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record_format |
Article |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
F. Zhao N. Zeng G. Asrar P. Friedlingstein A. Ito A. Jain E. Kalnay E. Kato C. D. Koven B. Poulter R. Rafique S. Sitch S. Shu B. Stocker N. Viovy A. Wiltshire S. Zaehle |
spellingShingle |
F. Zhao N. Zeng G. Asrar P. Friedlingstein A. Ito A. Jain E. Kalnay E. Kato C. D. Koven B. Poulter R. Rafique S. Sitch S. Shu B. Stocker N. Viovy A. Wiltshire S. Zaehle Role of CO<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis Biogeosciences |
author_facet |
F. Zhao N. Zeng G. Asrar P. Friedlingstein A. Ito A. Jain E. Kalnay E. Kato C. D. Koven B. Poulter R. Rafique S. Sitch S. Shu B. Stocker N. Viovy A. Wiltshire S. Zaehle |
author_sort |
F. Zhao |
title |
Role of CO<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude
increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis |
title_short |
Role of CO<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude
increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis |
title_full |
Role of CO<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude
increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis |
title_fullStr |
Role of CO<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude
increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Role of CO<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude
increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis |
title_sort |
role of co<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude
increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysis |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Biogeosciences |
issn |
1726-4170 1726-4189 |
publishDate |
2016-09-01 |
description |
We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (<i>F</i><sub>TA</sub>)
simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model
project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961–2012. While
some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric
inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound
early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the
seasonal cycle by 40 % compared to atmospheric inversions. Global
<i>F</i><sub>TA</sub> amplitude increase (19 ± 8 %) and its decadal
variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints
from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution
of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing
83 ± 56 %, −3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30 % to rising
CO<sub>2</sub>, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out
of the nine models suggest that CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization is the strongest
control – with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately
equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced
seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but
a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere
temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change
effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the
seasonal cycle of global <i>F</i><sub>TA</sub>: some are due to forest regrowth, while
others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as
revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate
cross-model correlation between <i>F</i><sub>TA</sub> amplitude increase and increase
in land carbon sink (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.61). Our results suggest that models can
show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms;
therefore, the spatial traits of CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization, climate change and
land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in
seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change. |
url |
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/5121/2016/bg-13-5121-2016.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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doaj-8410e359764748de8fe6f487831051132020-11-25T00:24:01ZengCopernicus PublicationsBiogeosciences1726-41701726-41892016-09-0113175121513710.5194/bg-13-5121-2016Role of CO<sub>2</sub>, climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: a multimodel analysisF. Zhao0N. Zeng1G. Asrar2P. Friedlingstein3A. Ito4A. Jain5E. Kalnay6E. Kato7C. D. Koven8B. Poulter9R. Rafique10S. Sitch11S. Shu12B. Stocker13N. Viovy14A. Wiltshire15S. Zaehle16Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USAJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20742, USAUniversity of Exeter, College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UKCenter for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305-0053 Tsukuba, JapanDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USADepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USAGlobal Environment Program Research & Development Division, the Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), 105-0003 Tokyo, JapanEarth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USAInstitute on Ecosystems and Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USAJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20742, USAUniversity of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UKDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USAClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, SwitzerlandLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceHadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UKBiogeochemical Integration Department, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 10 01 64, 07701 Jena, GermanyWe examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (<i>F</i><sub>TA</sub>) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961–2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40 % compared to atmospheric inversions. Global <i>F</i><sub>TA</sub> amplitude increase (19 ± 8 %) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56 %, −3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30 % to rising CO<sub>2</sub>, climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization is the strongest control – with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global <i>F</i><sub>TA</sub>: some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between <i>F</i><sub>TA</sub> amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/5121/2016/bg-13-5121-2016.pdf |