Stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campus
Disease outbreaks on residential college campuses provide an ideal opportunity for mathematical modelling. Unfortunately, publicly available data are rare and many of these outbreaks are relatively small, confounding traditional data-fitting techniques such as least-squares. Using data from three ou...
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Intercollegiate Biomathematics Alliance
2019-05-01
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2019.1618744 |
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doaj-86d1e9a8b2674ddb89cc330de4d909c72020-11-25T02:37:09ZengIntercollegiate Biomathematics AllianceLetters in Biomathematics2373-78672019-05-010011410.1080/23737867.2019.16187441618744Stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campusSubekshya Bidari0Eli E. Goldwyn1University of Colorado BoulderUniversity of PortlandDisease outbreaks on residential college campuses provide an ideal opportunity for mathematical modelling. Unfortunately, publicly available data are rare and many of these outbreaks are relatively small, confounding traditional data-fitting techniques such as least-squares. Using data from three outbreaks during the 2015 and 2017 flu seasons at Trinity College, we fit several SIR-type stochastic models by approximating the likelihood of each model. We find that stochasticity is a key driver in determining the size of the outbreak, and that it strongly depends on the amount of time between the start of the outbreak and the next school holiday. Our results indicate that in order to prevent or limit the size of an outbreak, school closure is likely to be more effective than increasing the vaccination rate. As influenza is a leading cause of negative academic outcomes, these results offer important guidance for school administrators.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2019.1618744Influenzainfectious disease modelingSIR modelmathematical modelingmaximum likelihood |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Subekshya Bidari Eli E. Goldwyn |
spellingShingle |
Subekshya Bidari Eli E. Goldwyn Stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campus Letters in Biomathematics Influenza infectious disease modeling SIR model mathematical modeling maximum likelihood |
author_facet |
Subekshya Bidari Eli E. Goldwyn |
author_sort |
Subekshya Bidari |
title |
Stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campus |
title_short |
Stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campus |
title_full |
Stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campus |
title_fullStr |
Stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campus |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campus |
title_sort |
stochastic models of influenza outbreaks on a college campus |
publisher |
Intercollegiate Biomathematics Alliance |
series |
Letters in Biomathematics |
issn |
2373-7867 |
publishDate |
2019-05-01 |
description |
Disease outbreaks on residential college campuses provide an ideal opportunity for mathematical modelling. Unfortunately, publicly available data are rare and many of these outbreaks are relatively small, confounding traditional data-fitting techniques such as least-squares. Using data from three outbreaks during the 2015 and 2017 flu seasons at Trinity College, we fit several SIR-type stochastic models by approximating the likelihood of each model. We find that stochasticity is a key driver in determining the size of the outbreak, and that it strongly depends on the amount of time between the start of the outbreak and the next school holiday. Our results indicate that in order to prevent or limit the size of an outbreak, school closure is likely to be more effective than increasing the vaccination rate. As influenza is a leading cause of negative academic outcomes, these results offer important guidance for school administrators. |
topic |
Influenza infectious disease modeling SIR model mathematical modeling maximum likelihood |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23737867.2019.1618744 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT subekshyabidari stochasticmodelsofinfluenzaoutbreaksonacollegecampus AT eliegoldwyn stochasticmodelsofinfluenzaoutbreaksonacollegecampus |
_version_ |
1724796405684371456 |