Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network
Risk factor identification is the basis for risk assessment. To quantify the safety risks of unmanned vessels in inland rivers, through analysis of previous studies, the safety risk impact factor framework of unmanned vessels in inland rivers is established based on three aspects: the ship aspect, t...
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Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4057195 |
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doaj-8704ad7b465c436480836e9080ce0a382020-11-24T21:33:50ZengHindawi-WileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952019-01-01201910.1155/2019/40571954057195Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian NetworkXiuxia Zhang0Qingnian Zhang1Jie Yang2Zhe Cong3Jing Luo4Huanwan Chen5School of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Heping Road No.1178, Wuchang District, Wuhan, WH 430063, ChinaSchool of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Heping Road No.1178, Wuchang District, Wuhan, WH 430063, ChinaSchool of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Heping Road No.1178, Wuchang District, Wuhan, WH 430063, ChinaSchool of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Heping Road No.1178, Wuchang District, Wuhan, WH 430063, ChinaSchool of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Heping Road No.1178, Wuchang District, Wuhan, WH 430063, ChinaSchool of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Heping Road No.1178, Wuchang District, Wuhan, WH 430063, ChinaRisk factor identification is the basis for risk assessment. To quantify the safety risks of unmanned vessels in inland rivers, through analysis of previous studies, the safety risk impact factor framework of unmanned vessels in inland rivers is established based on three aspects: the ship aspect, the environmental aspect, and the management and control aspect. Relying on Yangtze River, a fuzzy Bayesian network of the sailing safety risk of unmanned ships in inland rivers is constructed. The proposed safety risk model has considered different operational and environmental factors that affect shipping operations. Based on the fuzzy set theory, historical data, and expert judgments and on previous works are used to estimate the base value (prior values) of various risk factors. The case study assessed the safety risk probabilities of unmanned vessels in Yangtze River. By running uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, a significant change in the likelihood of the occurrence of safety risk is identified, and suggests a dominant factor in risk causation. The research results can provide effective information for analyzing the current safety status for navigation systems of unmanned ships in inland rivers. The estimated safety risk provides early warning to take appropriate preventive and mitigative measures to enhance the overall safety of shipping operations.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4057195 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Xiuxia Zhang Qingnian Zhang Jie Yang Zhe Cong Jing Luo Huanwan Chen |
spellingShingle |
Xiuxia Zhang Qingnian Zhang Jie Yang Zhe Cong Jing Luo Huanwan Chen Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Journal of Advanced Transportation |
author_facet |
Xiuxia Zhang Qingnian Zhang Jie Yang Zhe Cong Jing Luo Huanwan Chen |
author_sort |
Xiuxia Zhang |
title |
Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_short |
Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_full |
Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_fullStr |
Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_full_unstemmed |
Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network |
title_sort |
safety risk analysis of unmanned ships in inland rivers based on a fuzzy bayesian network |
publisher |
Hindawi-Wiley |
series |
Journal of Advanced Transportation |
issn |
0197-6729 2042-3195 |
publishDate |
2019-01-01 |
description |
Risk factor identification is the basis for risk assessment. To quantify the safety risks of unmanned vessels in inland rivers, through analysis of previous studies, the safety risk impact factor framework of unmanned vessels in inland rivers is established based on three aspects: the ship aspect, the environmental aspect, and the management and control aspect. Relying on Yangtze River, a fuzzy Bayesian network of the sailing safety risk of unmanned ships in inland rivers is constructed. The proposed safety risk model has considered different operational and environmental factors that affect shipping operations. Based on the fuzzy set theory, historical data, and expert judgments and on previous works are used to estimate the base value (prior values) of various risk factors. The case study assessed the safety risk probabilities of unmanned vessels in Yangtze River. By running uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, a significant change in the likelihood of the occurrence of safety risk is identified, and suggests a dominant factor in risk causation. The research results can provide effective information for analyzing the current safety status for navigation systems of unmanned ships in inland rivers. The estimated safety risk provides early warning to take appropriate preventive and mitigative measures to enhance the overall safety of shipping operations. |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4057195 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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