A Comparison Study of Extrapolation Models and Empirical Relations in Forecasting Solar Wind
Coronal mass ejections and high speed solar streams serve as perturbations to the background solar wind that have major implications in space weather dynamics. Therefore, a robust framework for accurate predictions of the background wind properties is a fundamental step toward the development of any...
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doaj-874440d5e63c4448bfc3a2a11d1a068a2020-11-25T04:04:30ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences2296-987X2020-11-01710.3389/fspas.2020.572084572084A Comparison Study of Extrapolation Models and Empirical Relations in Forecasting Solar WindSandeep Kumar0Arghyadeep Paul1Bhargav Vaidya2Bhargav Vaidya3Discipline of Astronomy Astrophysics and Space Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, IndiaDiscipline of Astronomy Astrophysics and Space Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, IndiaDiscipline of Astronomy Astrophysics and Space Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, IndiaCenter of Excellence in Space Sciences India, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur, IndiaCoronal mass ejections and high speed solar streams serve as perturbations to the background solar wind that have major implications in space weather dynamics. Therefore, a robust framework for accurate predictions of the background wind properties is a fundamental step toward the development of any space weather prediction toolbox. In this pilot study, we focus on the implementation and comparison of various models that are critical for a steady state, solar wind forecasting framework. Specifically, we perform case studies on Carrington rotations 2,053, 2,082, and 2,104, and compare the performance of magnetic field extrapolation models in conjunction with velocity empirical formulations to predict solar wind properties at Lagrangian point L1. Two different models to extrapolate the solar wind from the coronal domain to the inner-heliospheric domain are presented, namely, a) Kinematics based [Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX)] model, and b) Physics based model. The physics based model solves a set of conservative equations of hydrodynamics using the PLUTO code and can additionally predict the thermal properties of solar wind. The assessment in predicting solar wind parameters of the different models is quantified through statistical measures. We further extend this developed framework to also assess the polarity of inter-planetary magnetic field at L1. Our best models for the case of CR2053 gives a very high correlation coefficient (∼0.73–0.81) and has an root mean square error of (∼75–90 km s−1). Additionally, the physics based model has a standard deviation comparable with that obtained from the hourly OMNI solar wind data and also produces a considerable match with observed solar wind proton temperatures measured at L1 from the same database.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2020.572084/fullsolar windsun–earth connectionsun: magnetic fieldssun: heliospheremethod: numericalspace weather modeling |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Sandeep Kumar Arghyadeep Paul Bhargav Vaidya Bhargav Vaidya |
spellingShingle |
Sandeep Kumar Arghyadeep Paul Bhargav Vaidya Bhargav Vaidya A Comparison Study of Extrapolation Models and Empirical Relations in Forecasting Solar Wind Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences solar wind sun–earth connection sun: magnetic fields sun: heliosphere method: numerical space weather modeling |
author_facet |
Sandeep Kumar Arghyadeep Paul Bhargav Vaidya Bhargav Vaidya |
author_sort |
Sandeep Kumar |
title |
A Comparison Study of Extrapolation Models and Empirical Relations in Forecasting Solar Wind |
title_short |
A Comparison Study of Extrapolation Models and Empirical Relations in Forecasting Solar Wind |
title_full |
A Comparison Study of Extrapolation Models and Empirical Relations in Forecasting Solar Wind |
title_fullStr |
A Comparison Study of Extrapolation Models and Empirical Relations in Forecasting Solar Wind |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Comparison Study of Extrapolation Models and Empirical Relations in Forecasting Solar Wind |
title_sort |
comparison study of extrapolation models and empirical relations in forecasting solar wind |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
series |
Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences |
issn |
2296-987X |
publishDate |
2020-11-01 |
description |
Coronal mass ejections and high speed solar streams serve as perturbations to the background solar wind that have major implications in space weather dynamics. Therefore, a robust framework for accurate predictions of the background wind properties is a fundamental step toward the development of any space weather prediction toolbox. In this pilot study, we focus on the implementation and comparison of various models that are critical for a steady state, solar wind forecasting framework. Specifically, we perform case studies on Carrington rotations 2,053, 2,082, and 2,104, and compare the performance of magnetic field extrapolation models in conjunction with velocity empirical formulations to predict solar wind properties at Lagrangian point L1. Two different models to extrapolate the solar wind from the coronal domain to the inner-heliospheric domain are presented, namely, a) Kinematics based [Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX)] model, and b) Physics based model. The physics based model solves a set of conservative equations of hydrodynamics using the PLUTO code and can additionally predict the thermal properties of solar wind. The assessment in predicting solar wind parameters of the different models is quantified through statistical measures. We further extend this developed framework to also assess the polarity of inter-planetary magnetic field at L1. Our best models for the case of CR2053 gives a very high correlation coefficient (∼0.73–0.81) and has an root mean square error of (∼75–90 km s−1). Additionally, the physics based model has a standard deviation comparable with that obtained from the hourly OMNI solar wind data and also produces a considerable match with observed solar wind proton temperatures measured at L1 from the same database. |
topic |
solar wind sun–earth connection sun: magnetic fields sun: heliosphere method: numerical space weather modeling |
url |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2020.572084/full |
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