Alcohol control policies add to secular trends in all-cause mortality rates in young adults

• Main Authors: Alexander Tran, Jakob Manthey, Shannon Lange, Huan Jiang, Mindaugas Štelemėkas, Vaida Liutkutė-Gumarov, Olga Meščeriakova-Veliulienė, Janina Petkevičienė, Ričardas Radišauskas, Tadas Telksnys, Jürgen Rehm
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Publishing Group 2021-07-01
• Series: Scientific Reports
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94562-1

Abstract Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for premature mortality. Although alcohol control policies are known to impact all-cause mortality rates, the effect that policies have on specific age groups is an important area of research. This study investigates the effect of alcohol control policies implemented in 2009 and 2017 in Lithuania on all-cause mortality rates. All-cause mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 people) were obtained for 2001–2018 by 10-year age groups (20–29, 30–39, 40–49 years, etc.). All-cause mortality rates, independent of macro-level secular trends (e.g., economic trends) were examined. Following a joinpoint analysis to control for secular trends, an interrupted time series analysis showed that alcohol control policies had a significant effect on all-cause mortality rates (p = .018), with the most significant impact occurring among young adults (20–29 and 30–39 years of age). For these age groups, their mortality rate decreased during the 12 months following policy implementation (following the policy in 2009 for those 20–29 years of age, p = .0026, and following the policy in 2017 for those 30–39 years of age, p = .011). The results indicate that alcohol control policy can impact all-cause mortality rates, above and beyond secular trends, and that the impact is significant among young adults.