Analisis Risiko Finansial Dengan Metode Simulasi Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus: Pt. Phase Delta Control)

• Main Authors: Atikah Aghdhi Pratiwi, Rosa Rilantiana
• Format: Article
• Language: Indonesian
• Published: Universitas Negeri Surabaya 2016-10-01
• Series: Akrual: Jurnal Akuntansi
• Subjects: financial risk analysis; monte carlo simulation
• Online Access: https://journal.unesa.ac.id/index.php/aj/article/view/1347

Abstract Basically, the purpose of a company is make a profit and enrich the owners of the company. This is manifested by development and achievement of good performance, both in financial and operational perspective. But in reality, not all of companies can achieve good performance. One of them is because exposure of risk. This could threaten achievement of the objectives and existence of the company. Therefore, companies need to have an idea related to possible condition and financial projection in future periods that are affected by risk. One of the possible method is Monte Carlo Simulation. Research will be conducted at PT. Phase Delta Control with historical data related to production/sales volume, cost of production and selling price. Historical data will be used as Monte Carlo Simulation with random numbers that describe probability of each risk variables describing reality. The main result is estimated profitability of PT. Phase Delta Control in given period. Profit estimation will be uncertain variable due to some uncertainty