The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS
Abstract Seasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecasts and climate projections. After several years of development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Deutscher Wetterdienst performs operation...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2021-02-01
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Series: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002101 |
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doaj-88b3f03ac644498faa312fb44b5612042021-03-29T17:10:31ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662021-02-01132n/an/a10.1029/2020MS002101The German Climate Forecast System: GCFSKristina Fröhlich0Mikhail Dobrynin1Katharina Isensee2Claudia Gessner3Andreas Paxian4Holger Pohlmann5Helmuth Haak6Sebastian Brune7Barbara Früh8Johanna Baehr9Deutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach GermanyGoethe Universität Frankfurt Frankfurt GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach GermanyMax Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg GermanyCEN Universität Hamburg Hamburg GermanyDeutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach GermanyCEN Universität Hamburg Hamburg GermanyAbstract Seasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecasts and climate projections. After several years of development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Deutscher Wetterdienst performs operational seasonal forecasts since 2016 with the German Climate Forecast System, now in Version 2 (GCFS2.0). Here, the configuration of the previous system GCFS1.0 and the current GCFS2.0 are described and the performance of the two systems is compared over the common hindcast period of 1990–2014. In GCFS2.0, the forecast skill is improved compared to GCFS1.0 during boreal winter, especially for the Northern Hemisphere where the Pearson correlation has increased for the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, a similar performance of GCFS2.0 in comparison to GCFS1.0 is assessed during the boreal summer. Future developments for climate forecasts need a stronger focus on the performance of interannual variability in a model system.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002101developmentEarth‐systemforecastsmodelseasonal |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Kristina Fröhlich Mikhail Dobrynin Katharina Isensee Claudia Gessner Andreas Paxian Holger Pohlmann Helmuth Haak Sebastian Brune Barbara Früh Johanna Baehr |
spellingShingle |
Kristina Fröhlich Mikhail Dobrynin Katharina Isensee Claudia Gessner Andreas Paxian Holger Pohlmann Helmuth Haak Sebastian Brune Barbara Früh Johanna Baehr The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems development Earth‐system forecasts model seasonal |
author_facet |
Kristina Fröhlich Mikhail Dobrynin Katharina Isensee Claudia Gessner Andreas Paxian Holger Pohlmann Helmuth Haak Sebastian Brune Barbara Früh Johanna Baehr |
author_sort |
Kristina Fröhlich |
title |
The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS |
title_short |
The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS |
title_full |
The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS |
title_fullStr |
The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS |
title_full_unstemmed |
The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS |
title_sort |
german climate forecast system: gcfs |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
series |
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
issn |
1942-2466 |
publishDate |
2021-02-01 |
description |
Abstract Seasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecasts and climate projections. After several years of development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Deutscher Wetterdienst performs operational seasonal forecasts since 2016 with the German Climate Forecast System, now in Version 2 (GCFS2.0). Here, the configuration of the previous system GCFS1.0 and the current GCFS2.0 are described and the performance of the two systems is compared over the common hindcast period of 1990–2014. In GCFS2.0, the forecast skill is improved compared to GCFS1.0 during boreal winter, especially for the Northern Hemisphere where the Pearson correlation has increased for the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, a similar performance of GCFS2.0 in comparison to GCFS1.0 is assessed during the boreal summer. Future developments for climate forecasts need a stronger focus on the performance of interannual variability in a model system. |
topic |
development Earth‐system forecasts model seasonal |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002101 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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