Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number
We developed a method to produce time-varying maps for dengue transmission risk, using the Ross-Macdonald framework and differential equations to estimate spatially the basic reproduction number (R0) of a vector-borne disease. The components of the R0 formula were derived partly from a mosquito popu...
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doaj-8a6cb71cf7a6487a9cf9046346cfccc22021-09-27T04:25:22ZengElsevierResults in Physics2211-37972021-10-0129104687Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction numberSamuel Benkimoun0Célestine Atyame1Marion Haramboure2Pascal Degenne3Hélène Thébault4Jean-Sébastien Dehecq5Annelise Tran6CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, F-97490 Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France; ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France; Géographie-Cités, UMR 8504, Université Paris 1, France; Centre de Sciences Humaines, UMIFRE 20, CNRS-MEAE, India; Corresponding author at: CIRAD, Plate-forme CYROI, 2 rue Maxime Rivière, 97490 Sainte-Clotilde, Reunion, France.Université de la Réunion, UMR PIMIT, F-97490 Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, FranceCIRAD, UMR ASTRE, F-97490 Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France; ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France; CIRAD, UMR TETIS, F-34398 Montpellier, France; TETIS, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, Montpellier, FranceCIRAD, UMR TETIS, F-34398 Montpellier, France; TETIS, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, Montpellier, FranceAgence Régionale de Santé, F-97490 Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, FranceAgence Régionale de Santé, F-97490 Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, FranceCIRAD, UMR ASTRE, F-97490 Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France; ASTRE, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France; CIRAD, UMR TETIS, F-34398 Montpellier, France; TETIS, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, Montpellier, FranceWe developed a method to produce time-varying maps for dengue transmission risk, using the Ross-Macdonald framework and differential equations to estimate spatially the basic reproduction number (R0) of a vector-borne disease. The components of the R0 formula were derived partly from a mosquito population dynamics model integrating meteorological and environmental variables, and partly from temperature-dependent functions of vector competence and the extrinsic incubation period. The method was applied on Reunion Island, a tropical island located in the Indian Ocean, where the mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus has been responsible for large and numerous outbreaks of dengue. As a validation, predicted maps and dynamic outputs were compared with the distribution of confirmed dengue cases registered during the year 2018 in Reunion Island. The results highlight strong agreements between the observed epidemiological patterns and predicted R0 distribution and temporal dynamics. This finding demonstrates the relevance and efficiency of the spatialised basic reproduction number (R0) to develop an operational dynamic mapping tool for dengue surveillance and control. The resulting method could be of great use in a health policy-making context, providing a time and space awareness to the dengue risk perception.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379721007683DengueVector-borne diseasesBasic reproduction numberPublic health informatics |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Samuel Benkimoun Célestine Atyame Marion Haramboure Pascal Degenne Hélène Thébault Jean-Sébastien Dehecq Annelise Tran |
spellingShingle |
Samuel Benkimoun Célestine Atyame Marion Haramboure Pascal Degenne Hélène Thébault Jean-Sébastien Dehecq Annelise Tran Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number Results in Physics Dengue Vector-borne diseases Basic reproduction number Public health informatics |
author_facet |
Samuel Benkimoun Célestine Atyame Marion Haramboure Pascal Degenne Hélène Thébault Jean-Sébastien Dehecq Annelise Tran |
author_sort |
Samuel Benkimoun |
title |
Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number |
title_short |
Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number |
title_full |
Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number |
title_fullStr |
Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number |
title_sort |
dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
Results in Physics |
issn |
2211-3797 |
publishDate |
2021-10-01 |
description |
We developed a method to produce time-varying maps for dengue transmission risk, using the Ross-Macdonald framework and differential equations to estimate spatially the basic reproduction number (R0) of a vector-borne disease. The components of the R0 formula were derived partly from a mosquito population dynamics model integrating meteorological and environmental variables, and partly from temperature-dependent functions of vector competence and the extrinsic incubation period. The method was applied on Reunion Island, a tropical island located in the Indian Ocean, where the mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus has been responsible for large and numerous outbreaks of dengue. As a validation, predicted maps and dynamic outputs were compared with the distribution of confirmed dengue cases registered during the year 2018 in Reunion Island. The results highlight strong agreements between the observed epidemiological patterns and predicted R0 distribution and temporal dynamics. This finding demonstrates the relevance and efficiency of the spatialised basic reproduction number (R0) to develop an operational dynamic mapping tool for dengue surveillance and control. The resulting method could be of great use in a health policy-making context, providing a time and space awareness to the dengue risk perception. |
topic |
Dengue Vector-borne diseases Basic reproduction number Public health informatics |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379721007683 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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