| Summary: | One of the strategies of the European Green Deal is the increment of renewable integration in the civil sector and the mitigation of the impact of climate change. With a statistical and critical approach, the paper analyzes these aspects by means of a case study simulated in a cooling dominated climate. It consists of a single-family house representative of the 1980s Italian building stock. Starting from data monitored between 2015 and 2020, a weather file was built with different methodologies. The first objective was the evaluation of how the method for selecting the solar radiation influences the prevision of photovoltaic productivity. Then, a sensitivity analysis was developed, by means of modified weather files according to representative pathways defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The results indicate that the climate changes will bring an increment of photovoltaic productivity while the heating energy need will be reduced until 45% (e.g., in March) and the cooling energy need will be more than double compared with the current conditions. The traditional efficiency measures are not resilient because the increase of the cooling demand could be not balanced. The maximization of installed photovoltaic power is a solution for increasing the resilience. Indeed, going from 3.3 kW<sub>p</sub> to 6.9 kW<sub>p</sub> for the worst emission scenario, in a typical summer month (e.g., August), the self-consumption increases until 33% meanwhile the imported electricity passes from 28% to 17%.
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