Bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in Mbour, Senegal
Diarrhoeal diseases remain a major public health problem, causing more than half a million child deaths every year, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite existing knowledge on the aetiologies and causes of diarrhoeal diseases, relatively little is known about its spatial...
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doaj-9033c8b2bbe946858ef615a7fea658d02020-11-25T03:58:34ZengPAGEPress PublicationsGeospatial Health1827-19871970-70962019-11-0114210.4081/gh.2019.823Bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in Mbour, SenegalSokhna Thiam0Guéladio Cissé1Anna-Sofie Stensgaard2Aminata Niang-Diène3Jürg Utzinger4Penelope Vounatsou5Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; Health Research, Epidemiological Surveillance and Training Institute, DakarSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, BaselCenter for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, CopenhagenDepartment of Geography, University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar, DakarSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, BaselSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel Diarrhoeal diseases remain a major public health problem, causing more than half a million child deaths every year, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite existing knowledge on the aetiologies and causes of diarrhoeal diseases, relatively little is known about its spatial patterns in LMICs, including Senegal. In the present study, data from a cross-sectional survey carried out in 2016 were analysed to describe the spatial pattern of diarrhoeal prevalence in children under the age of 5 years in the secondary city of Mbour in the south-western part of Senegal. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models with spatially varying coefficients were employed to determine the effect of sociodemographic, economic and climate parameters on diarrhoeal prevalence. We observed substantial spatial heterogeneities in diarrhoea prevalence. Risk maps, stratified by age group, showed that diarrhoeal prevalence was higher in children aged 25-59 months compared to their younger counterparts with the highest risk observed in the north and south peripheral neighbourhoods, especially in Grand Mbour, Médine, Liberté and Zone Sonatel. The posterior relative risk estimate obtained from the Bayesian CAR model indicated that a unit increase in the proportion of people with untreated stored drinking water was associated with a 29% higher risk of diarrhoea. A unit increase in rainfall was also associated with an increase in diarrhoea risk. Our findings suggest that public health officials should integrate disease mapping and cluster analyses and consider the varying effects of sociodemographic factors in developing and implementing areaspecific interventions for reducing diarrhoea. https://www.geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/823Bayesian conditional autoregressive modelsDiarrhoeaRisk profilingSenegalSpatial pattern |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Sokhna Thiam Guéladio Cissé Anna-Sofie Stensgaard Aminata Niang-Diène Jürg Utzinger Penelope Vounatsou |
spellingShingle |
Sokhna Thiam Guéladio Cissé Anna-Sofie Stensgaard Aminata Niang-Diène Jürg Utzinger Penelope Vounatsou Bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in Mbour, Senegal Geospatial Health Bayesian conditional autoregressive models Diarrhoea Risk profiling Senegal Spatial pattern |
author_facet |
Sokhna Thiam Guéladio Cissé Anna-Sofie Stensgaard Aminata Niang-Diène Jürg Utzinger Penelope Vounatsou |
author_sort |
Sokhna Thiam |
title |
Bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in Mbour, Senegal |
title_short |
Bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in Mbour, Senegal |
title_full |
Bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in Mbour, Senegal |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in Mbour, Senegal |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in Mbour, Senegal |
title_sort |
bayesian conditional autoregressive models to assess spatial patterns of diarrhoea risk among children under the age of 5 years in mbour, senegal |
publisher |
PAGEPress Publications |
series |
Geospatial Health |
issn |
1827-1987 1970-7096 |
publishDate |
2019-11-01 |
description |
Diarrhoeal diseases remain a major public health problem, causing more than half a million child deaths every year, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite existing knowledge on the aetiologies and causes of diarrhoeal diseases, relatively little is known about its spatial patterns in LMICs, including Senegal. In the present study, data from a cross-sectional survey carried out in 2016 were analysed to describe the spatial pattern of diarrhoeal prevalence in children under the age of 5 years in the secondary city of Mbour in the south-western part of Senegal. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models with spatially varying coefficients were employed to determine the effect of sociodemographic, economic and climate parameters on diarrhoeal prevalence. We observed substantial spatial heterogeneities in diarrhoea prevalence. Risk maps, stratified by age group, showed that diarrhoeal prevalence was higher in children aged 25-59 months compared to their younger counterparts with the highest risk observed in the north and south peripheral neighbourhoods, especially in Grand Mbour, Médine, Liberté and Zone Sonatel. The posterior relative risk estimate obtained from the Bayesian CAR model indicated that a unit increase in the proportion of people with untreated stored drinking water was associated with a 29% higher risk of diarrhoea. A unit increase in rainfall was also associated with an increase in diarrhoea risk. Our findings suggest that public health officials should integrate disease mapping and cluster analyses and consider the varying effects of sociodemographic factors in developing and implementing areaspecific interventions for reducing diarrhoea.
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topic |
Bayesian conditional autoregressive models Diarrhoea Risk profiling Senegal Spatial pattern |
url |
https://www.geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/823 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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