Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments
This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importance of depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2016-09-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/2177/2016/nhess-16-2177-2016.pdf |
| Summary: | This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are
applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for
forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importance
of depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates
three-dimensional grids, is compared with an approach with two-dimensional
cells. Through application to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto,
it is shown that the approaches with three-dimensional grids always
demonstrate a better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of
depth dependency for forecasting, especially for applications to a subduction
environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In
addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for
forecasting models and concludes that time dependency only becomes crucial
during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a
large earthquake. |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |