Comparison of hourly surface downwelling solar radiation estimated from MSG–SEVIRI and forecast by the RAMS model with pyranometers over Italy
In this paper, we evaluate the performance of two global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) estimates, one derived from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) and another from the 1-day forecast of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale model. The horizontal resolution of the MSG-GHI...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2017-06-01
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Series: | Atmospheric Measurement Techniques |
Online Access: | https://www.atmos-meas-tech.net/10/2337/2017/amt-10-2337-2017.pdf |
Summary: | In this paper, we evaluate the performance of two global horizontal solar
irradiance (GHI) estimates, one derived from Meteosat Second Generation
(MSG) and another from the 1-day forecast of the Regional Atmospheric
Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale model. The horizontal resolution of the
MSG-GHI is 3 × 5 km<sup>2</sup> over Italy, which is the focus area of this study.
For this paper, RAMS has the horizontal resolution of 4 km.<br><br>The performances of the MSG-GHI estimate and RAMS-GHI 1-day forecast are
evaluated for 1 year (1 June 2013–31 May 2014) against data of 12
ground-based pyranometers over Italy spanning a range of climatic
conditions, i.e. from maritime Mediterranean to Alpine climate.<br><br>Statistics for hourly GHI and daily integrated GHI are presented for the
four seasons and the whole year for all the measurement sites. Different sky
conditions are considered in the analysis<br><br>Results for hourly data show an evident dependence on the sky conditions,
with the root mean square error (RMSE) increasing from clear to cloudy
conditions. The RMSE is substantially higher for Alpine stations in all the
seasons, mainly because of the increase of the cloud coverage for these
stations, which is not well represented at the satellite and model
resolutions.
<br><br>
Considering the yearly statistics computed from hourly data for the RAMS
model, the RMSE ranges from 152 W m<sup>−2</sup> (31 %) obtained for
Cozzo Spadaro, a maritime station, to 287 W m<sup>−2</sup> (82 %) for Aosta, an
Alpine site. Considering the yearly statistics computed from hourly data for
MSG-GHI, the minimum RMSE is for Cozzo Spadaro (71 W m<sup>−2</sup>, 14 %), while
the maximum is for Aosta (181 W m<sup>−2</sup>, 51 %). The mean bias error (MBE)
shows the tendency of RAMS to over-forecast the GHI, while no specific
behaviour is found for MSG-GHI.<br><br>Results for daily integrated GHI show a lower RMSE compared to hourly GHI
evaluation for both RAMS-GHI 1-day forecast and MSG-GHI estimate.
Considering the yearly evaluation, the RMSE of daily integrated GHI is at
least 9 % lower (in percentage units, from 31 to 22 % for RAMS in
Cozzo Spadaro) than the RMSE computed for hourly data for each station. A
partial compensation of underestimation and overestimation of the GHI
contributes to the RMSE reduction. Furthermore, a post-processing technique,
namely model output statistics (MOS), is applied to improve the GHI forecast
at hourly and daily temporal scales. The application of MOS shows an
improvement of RAMS-GHI forecast, which depends on the site considered,
while the impact of MOS on MSG-GHI RMSE is small. |
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ISSN: | 1867-1381 1867-8548 |