Tracking type specific prevalence of human Papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategy
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surveillance designed to detect changes in the type-specific distribution of HPV in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN-3) is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the Australian vaccination programme on cancer causi...
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doaj-96052271b44e4ef6b31ed8ff9381d4b72020-11-24T21:36:34ZengBMCBMC Medical Research Methodology1471-22882012-06-011217710.1186/1471-2288-12-77Tracking type specific prevalence of human Papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategyWaters Edward KKaldor JohnHamilton Andrew JSmith Anthony MAPhilp David JDonovan BasilRegan David G<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surveillance designed to detect changes in the type-specific distribution of HPV in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN-3) is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the Australian vaccination programme on cancer causing HPV types. This paper develops a protocol that eliminates the need to calculate required sample size; sample size is difficult to calculate in advance because HPV’s true type-specific prevalence is imperfectly known.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A truncated sequential sampling plan that collects a variable sample size was designed to detect changes in the type-specific distribution of HPV in CIN-3. Computer simulation to evaluate the accuracy of the plan at classifying the prevalence of an HPV type as low (< 5%), moderate (5-15%), or high (> 15%) and the average sample size collected was conducted and used to assess its appropriateness as a surveillance tool.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The plan classified the proportion of CIN-3 lesions positive for an HPV type very accurately, with >90% of simulations correctly classifying a simulated data-set with known prevalence. Misclassifying an HPV type of high prevalence as being of low prevalence, arguably the most serious kind of potential error, occurred < 0.05 times per 100 simulations. A much lower sample size (21–22 versus 40–48) was required to classify samples of high rather than low or moderate prevalence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Truncated sequential sampling enables the proportion of CIN-3 due to an HPV type to be accurately classified using small sample sizes. Truncated sequential sampling should be used for type-specific HPV surveillance in the vaccination era.</p> http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2288/12/77 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Waters Edward K Kaldor John Hamilton Andrew J Smith Anthony MA Philp David J Donovan Basil Regan David G |
spellingShingle |
Waters Edward K Kaldor John Hamilton Andrew J Smith Anthony MA Philp David J Donovan Basil Regan David G Tracking type specific prevalence of human Papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategy BMC Medical Research Methodology |
author_facet |
Waters Edward K Kaldor John Hamilton Andrew J Smith Anthony MA Philp David J Donovan Basil Regan David G |
author_sort |
Waters Edward K |
title |
Tracking type specific prevalence of human Papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategy |
title_short |
Tracking type specific prevalence of human Papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategy |
title_full |
Tracking type specific prevalence of human Papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategy |
title_fullStr |
Tracking type specific prevalence of human Papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tracking type specific prevalence of human Papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategy |
title_sort |
tracking type specific prevalence of human papillomavirus in cervical pre-cancer: a novel sampling strategy |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
BMC Medical Research Methodology |
issn |
1471-2288 |
publishDate |
2012-06-01 |
description |
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surveillance designed to detect changes in the type-specific distribution of HPV in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN-3) is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the Australian vaccination programme on cancer causing HPV types. This paper develops a protocol that eliminates the need to calculate required sample size; sample size is difficult to calculate in advance because HPV’s true type-specific prevalence is imperfectly known.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A truncated sequential sampling plan that collects a variable sample size was designed to detect changes in the type-specific distribution of HPV in CIN-3. Computer simulation to evaluate the accuracy of the plan at classifying the prevalence of an HPV type as low (< 5%), moderate (5-15%), or high (> 15%) and the average sample size collected was conducted and used to assess its appropriateness as a surveillance tool.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The plan classified the proportion of CIN-3 lesions positive for an HPV type very accurately, with >90% of simulations correctly classifying a simulated data-set with known prevalence. Misclassifying an HPV type of high prevalence as being of low prevalence, arguably the most serious kind of potential error, occurred < 0.05 times per 100 simulations. A much lower sample size (21–22 versus 40–48) was required to classify samples of high rather than low or moderate prevalence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Truncated sequential sampling enables the proportion of CIN-3 due to an HPV type to be accurately classified using small sample sizes. Truncated sequential sampling should be used for type-specific HPV surveillance in the vaccination era.</p> |
url |
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2288/12/77 |
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