Criticality Analysis of a Water Distribution System Considering Both Economic Consequences and Hydraulic Loss Using Modern Portfolio Theory

• Main Authors: Seungyub Lee, Sangmin Shin, David R. Judi, Timothy McPherson, Steven J. Burian
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2019-06-01
• Series: Water
• Subjects: asset management; pipe replacement prioritization; consequence analysis
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/6/1222

This study introduces an approach using Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to consider hydraulic resilience and economic consequence resilience of a water distribution system (WDS) to identify critical assets. <i>ECLIPS</i> (Economic Consequence Linked to Interruption in Providing Service), a way to represent loss of water provision as economic loss, is used to measure economic consequence following a reduction of WDS functionality. The approach is demonstrated using a hypothetical WDS and tested for pipe breakage and replacement scenarios using EPANET hydraulic simulations. First, the correlation between hydraulic resilience and economic consequence resilience was investigated to assess differences between two resilience measures for identifying pipe&#8217;s criticality for replacement. The results confirmed the two resilience measures exhibited differing responses (covariance = 0.2), suggesting that use of both would provide complementary insight. Results of the MPT analysis identified the benefits of balancing hydraulic and economic consequence resilience measures to yield lower risk. This study provides a practical approach to incorporate economic consequence into planning, design, and research applications identifying critical WDS assets.