A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists
The current stage of demographic changes in all countries that have experienced a demographic transition is characterized by two main features: (1) cessation of population growth; (2) a progressive increase in the total dependency ratio, which until recently, despite the long-run p...
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Voprosy Ekonomiki
2018-10-01
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doaj-964dbd35ba0e404ea8fcd25768d27b7d2020-11-25T02:34:12ZengVoprosy EkonomikiRussian Journal of Economics2618-72132405-47392018-10-014322924810.3897/j.ruje.4.3016630166A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economistsAnatoly Vishnevsky0Ekaterina Shcherbakova1National Research University Higher School of EconomicsInstitute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences The current stage of demographic changes in all countries that have experienced a demographic transition is characterized by two main features: (1) cessation of population growth; (2) a progressive increase in the total dependency ratio, which until recently, despite the long-run population ageing, was declining. Both of these features are unfavorable from the economic point of view. In Russia, the situation is aggravated by the peculiarities of the population pyramid, heavily deformed by the social and military upheavals of the 20th century. The article shows that, for a long time, the demographic trends in Russia favored its economic development, but now the country is entering a long period of unfavorable demographic changes. The cessation of growth of the Russian population, the reduction in the working-age population and its ageing and the increase in the dependency ratio will have a deterrent effect on economic development and, at the same time, make it more difficult to solve social problems. In particular, these factors will create greater problems for the pension system for people older than working age. The issue of using the migration resource to mitigate the negative consequences of demographic changes is discussed. https://rujec.org/articles.php?id=30166 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Anatoly Vishnevsky Ekaterina Shcherbakova |
spellingShingle |
Anatoly Vishnevsky Ekaterina Shcherbakova A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists Russian Journal of Economics |
author_facet |
Anatoly Vishnevsky Ekaterina Shcherbakova |
author_sort |
Anatoly Vishnevsky |
title |
A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists |
title_short |
A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists |
title_full |
A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists |
title_fullStr |
A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists |
title_full_unstemmed |
A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists |
title_sort |
new stage of demographic change: a warning for economists |
publisher |
Voprosy Ekonomiki |
series |
Russian Journal of Economics |
issn |
2618-7213 2405-4739 |
publishDate |
2018-10-01 |
description |
The current stage of demographic changes in all countries that have experienced a demographic transition is characterized by two main features: (1) cessation of population growth; (2) a progressive increase in the total dependency ratio, which until recently, despite the long-run population ageing, was declining. Both of these features are unfavorable from the economic point of view. In Russia, the situation is aggravated by the peculiarities of the population pyramid, heavily deformed by the social and military upheavals of the 20th century. The article shows that, for a long time, the demographic trends in Russia favored its economic development, but now the country is entering a long period of unfavorable demographic changes. The cessation of growth of the Russian population, the reduction in the working-age population and its ageing and the increase in the dependency ratio will have a deterrent effect on economic development and, at the same time, make it more difficult to solve social problems. In particular, these factors will create greater problems for the pension system for people older than working age. The issue of using the migration resource to mitigate the negative consequences of demographic changes is discussed.
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url |
https://rujec.org/articles.php?id=30166 |
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