Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia
The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak continues to spread rapidly across the world and has been declared as pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). Saudi Arabia was among the countries that was affected by the deadly and contagious virus. Using a real-time data from 2 March 2020 to...
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doaj-9bf6034616344e9c8a00aa1204c02c672020-11-25T03:28:56ZengMDPI AGInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health1661-78271660-46012020-06-01174568456810.3390/ijerph17124568Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi ArabiaDabiah Alboaneen0Bernardi Pranggono1Dhahi Alshammari2Nourah Alqahtani3Raja Alyaffer4Computer Science Department, College of Science and Humanities in Jubail, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Jubail P.O. Box 31961, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Engineering and Mathematics, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield S1 1WB, UKComputer Science and Information Department, College of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Ha’il, Hail 8145, Saudi ArabiaComputer Science Department, College of Science and Humanities in Jubail, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Jubail P.O. Box 31961, Saudi ArabiaComputer Science Department, College of Science and Humanities in Jubail, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Jubail P.O. Box 31961, Saudi ArabiaThe coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak continues to spread rapidly across the world and has been declared as pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). Saudi Arabia was among the countries that was affected by the deadly and contagious virus. Using a real-time data from 2 March 2020 to 15 May 2020 collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, we aimed to give a local prediction of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. We used two models: the Logistic Growth and the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered for real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Saudi Arabia. Our models predicted that the epidemics of COVID-19 will have total cases of 69,000 to 79,000 cases. The simulations also predicted that the outbreak will entering the final-phase by end of June 2020.https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/12/45682019 novel coronavirusCOVID-19Saudi Arabialogistic growth modelSIR model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Dabiah Alboaneen Bernardi Pranggono Dhahi Alshammari Nourah Alqahtani Raja Alyaffer |
spellingShingle |
Dabiah Alboaneen Bernardi Pranggono Dhahi Alshammari Nourah Alqahtani Raja Alyaffer Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2019 novel coronavirus COVID-19 Saudi Arabia logistic growth model SIR model |
author_facet |
Dabiah Alboaneen Bernardi Pranggono Dhahi Alshammari Nourah Alqahtani Raja Alyaffer |
author_sort |
Dabiah Alboaneen |
title |
Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia |
title_short |
Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia |
title_full |
Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia |
title_sort |
predicting the epidemiological outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in saudi arabia |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |
issn |
1661-7827 1660-4601 |
publishDate |
2020-06-01 |
description |
The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak continues to spread rapidly across the world and has been declared as pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO). Saudi Arabia was among the countries that was affected by the deadly and contagious virus. Using a real-time data from 2 March 2020 to 15 May 2020 collected from Saudi Ministry of Health, we aimed to give a local prediction of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. We used two models: the Logistic Growth and the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered for real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Saudi Arabia. Our models predicted that the epidemics of COVID-19 will have total cases of 69,000 to 79,000 cases. The simulations also predicted that the outbreak will entering the final-phase by end of June 2020. |
topic |
2019 novel coronavirus COVID-19 Saudi Arabia logistic growth model SIR model |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/12/4568 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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