Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets
Diesel-powered, human-driven buses currently dominate public transit options in most U.S. cities, yet they produce health, environmental, and cost concerns. Emerging technologies may improve fleet operations by cost-effectively reducing emissions. This study analyzes both battery-electric buses and...
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doaj-9d21523054554de18c592beb0d118b022020-11-25T02:41:20ZengMDPI AGSustainability2071-10502020-05-01123977397710.3390/su12103977Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit FleetsNeil Quarles0Kara M. Kockelman1Moataz Mohamed2Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin—6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall, Austin, TX 78712-1076, USADepartment of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin—6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall, Austin, TX 78712-1076, USADepartment of Civil Engineering, McMaster University JHE 301, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, CanadaDiesel-powered, human-driven buses currently dominate public transit options in most U.S. cities, yet they produce health, environmental, and cost concerns. Emerging technologies may improve fleet operations by cost-effectively reducing emissions. This study analyzes both battery-electric buses and self-driving (autonomous) buses from both cost and qualitative perspectives, using the Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s bus fleet in Austin, Texas. The study predicts battery-electric buses, including the required charging infrastructure, will become lifecycle cost-competitive in or before the year 2030 at existing U.S. fuel prices ($2.00/gallon), with the specific year depending on the actual rate of cost decline and the diesel bus purchase prices. Rising diesel prices would result in immediate cost savings before reaching $3.30 per gallon. Self-driving buses will reduce or eliminate the need for human drivers, one of the highest current operating costs of transit agencies. Finally, this study develops adoption schedules for these technologies. Recognizing bus lifespans and driver contracts, and assuming battery-electric bus adoption beginning in year-2020, cumulative break-even (neglecting extrinsic benefits, such as respiratory health) occurs somewhere between 2030 and 2037 depending on the rate of battery cost decline and diesel-bus purchase prices. This range changes to 2028 if self-driving technology is available for simultaneous adoption on new electric bus purchases beginning in 2020. The results inform fleet operators and manufacturers of the budgetary implications of converting a bus fleet to electric power, and what cost parameters allow electric buses to provide budgetary benefits over their diesel counterparts.https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/3977self-driving buselectric bustransit costsbenefits of automationbenefits of electrification |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Neil Quarles Kara M. Kockelman Moataz Mohamed |
spellingShingle |
Neil Quarles Kara M. Kockelman Moataz Mohamed Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets Sustainability self-driving bus electric bus transit costs benefits of automation benefits of electrification |
author_facet |
Neil Quarles Kara M. Kockelman Moataz Mohamed |
author_sort |
Neil Quarles |
title |
Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets |
title_short |
Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets |
title_full |
Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets |
title_fullStr |
Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets |
title_sort |
costs and benefits of electrifying and automating bus transit fleets |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Sustainability |
issn |
2071-1050 |
publishDate |
2020-05-01 |
description |
Diesel-powered, human-driven buses currently dominate public transit options in most U.S. cities, yet they produce health, environmental, and cost concerns. Emerging technologies may improve fleet operations by cost-effectively reducing emissions. This study analyzes both battery-electric buses and self-driving (autonomous) buses from both cost and qualitative perspectives, using the Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s bus fleet in Austin, Texas. The study predicts battery-electric buses, including the required charging infrastructure, will become lifecycle cost-competitive in or before the year 2030 at existing U.S. fuel prices ($2.00/gallon), with the specific year depending on the actual rate of cost decline and the diesel bus purchase prices. Rising diesel prices would result in immediate cost savings before reaching $3.30 per gallon. Self-driving buses will reduce or eliminate the need for human drivers, one of the highest current operating costs of transit agencies. Finally, this study develops adoption schedules for these technologies. Recognizing bus lifespans and driver contracts, and assuming battery-electric bus adoption beginning in year-2020, cumulative break-even (neglecting extrinsic benefits, such as respiratory health) occurs somewhere between 2030 and 2037 depending on the rate of battery cost decline and diesel-bus purchase prices. This range changes to 2028 if self-driving technology is available for simultaneous adoption on new electric bus purchases beginning in 2020. The results inform fleet operators and manufacturers of the budgetary implications of converting a bus fleet to electric power, and what cost parameters allow electric buses to provide budgetary benefits over their diesel counterparts. |
topic |
self-driving bus electric bus transit costs benefits of automation benefits of electrification |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/3977 |
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