Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district
The aim of this study was to present the fire ignition risk for Manavgat-Antalya District to enable the planning of firefighting sources in a more qualified way. From sites within the study area, where forest fires broke out or not during the past five years, we obtained geographical coordinates, cl...
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İstanbul University
2016-07-01
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.42696 |
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doaj-9d6ccc00560b48d993e707786cea19be2020-11-24T21:30:51Zengİstanbul Universityİstanbul Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi0535-84180535-84182016-07-0166245947010.17099/jffiu.42696Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat districtCoşkun Okan Güney0Kürşad Özkan1Özdemir Şentürk2West Mediterranean Forestry Research Institute, 07010, Antalya, TurkeySuleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Soil Science Ecology, 32260, Isparta, TurkeyMehmet Akif Ersoy University, Golhisar Vocational School, 15400, Burdur, TurkeyThe aim of this study was to present the fire ignition risk for Manavgat-Antalya District to enable the planning of firefighting sources in a more qualified way. From sites within the study area, where forest fires broke out or not during the past five years, we obtained geographical coordinates, climate data, topographical data and variables like bedrock, stand types, settlement areas, roads and power lines and prepared them with geographical information systems. For all variables we performed Wilcoxon rank-sum test, interspecific correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis and obtained 4 different models. When ROC analysis was applied to these models, model 4 was determined as the most significant model and therefore used to prepare the fire ignition risk map for the Manavgat-Antalya District. According to this map, ignition risk within the study area was highest in and around settlement areas where roads and power lines concentrate and Turkish red pine is distributed, but it was lowest afar of settlement areas without roads and where species apart from Turkish red pine are distributed. According to the results some suggestions were made.http://dx.doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.42696Forest fireignition riskfire riskfire risk mapforest fıre occurrence probability |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Coşkun Okan Güney Kürşad Özkan Özdemir Şentürk |
spellingShingle |
Coşkun Okan Güney Kürşad Özkan Özdemir Şentürk Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district İstanbul Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi Forest fire ignition risk fire risk fire risk map forest fıre occurrence probability |
author_facet |
Coşkun Okan Güney Kürşad Özkan Özdemir Şentürk |
author_sort |
Coşkun Okan Güney |
title |
Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district |
title_short |
Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district |
title_full |
Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district |
title_fullStr |
Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the Antalya-Manavgat district |
title_sort |
modelling of spatial prediction of fire ignition risk in the antalya-manavgat district |
publisher |
İstanbul University |
series |
İstanbul Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi |
issn |
0535-8418 0535-8418 |
publishDate |
2016-07-01 |
description |
The aim of this study was to present the fire ignition risk for Manavgat-Antalya District to enable the planning of firefighting sources in a more qualified way. From sites within the study area, where forest fires broke out or not during the past five years, we obtained geographical coordinates, climate data, topographical data and variables like bedrock, stand types, settlement areas, roads and power lines and prepared them with geographical information systems. For all variables we performed Wilcoxon rank-sum test, interspecific correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis and obtained 4 different models. When ROC analysis was applied to these models, model 4 was determined as the most significant model and therefore used to prepare the fire ignition risk map for the Manavgat-Antalya District. According to this map, ignition risk within the study area was highest in and around settlement areas where roads and power lines concentrate and Turkish red pine is distributed, but it was lowest afar of settlement areas without roads and where species apart from Turkish red pine are distributed. According to the results some suggestions were made. |
topic |
Forest fire ignition risk fire risk fire risk map forest fıre occurrence probability |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.42696 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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