Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high...
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doaj-9f61240dec834f3a867f7bb041edfd4e2020-11-25T02:53:08ZengBMCBMC Research Notes1756-05002012-08-015144210.1186/1756-0500-5-442Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessmentRetèl Valesca PJoore Manuela ALinn Sabine CRutgers Emiel JTvan Harten Wim H<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers.</p> http://www.biomedcentral.com/1756-0500/5/442Early technology assessmentScenario draftingGenomic profiling70-gene signatureBreast cancer |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Retèl Valesca P Joore Manuela A Linn Sabine C Rutgers Emiel JT van Harten Wim H |
spellingShingle |
Retèl Valesca P Joore Manuela A Linn Sabine C Rutgers Emiel JT van Harten Wim H Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment BMC Research Notes Early technology assessment Scenario drafting Genomic profiling 70-gene signature Breast cancer |
author_facet |
Retèl Valesca P Joore Manuela A Linn Sabine C Rutgers Emiel JT van Harten Wim H |
author_sort |
Retèl Valesca P |
title |
Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment |
title_short |
Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment |
title_full |
Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment |
title_fullStr |
Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment |
title_sort |
scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
BMC Research Notes |
issn |
1756-0500 |
publishDate |
2012-08-01 |
description |
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers.</p> |
topic |
Early technology assessment Scenario drafting Genomic profiling 70-gene signature Breast cancer |
url |
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1756-0500/5/442 |
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