Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler
Abstract Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify th...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5547 |
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doaj-a0fd6fa803d14b8b94b057a0ed6fcff42021-03-02T02:04:23ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582019-09-01918102631027610.1002/ece3.5547Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's WarblerDonald J. Brown0Deahn M. Donner1Christine A. Ribic2Carol I. Bocetti3School of Natural Resources West Virginia University Morgantown WV USANorthern Research Station U.S.D.A. Forest Service Rhinelander WI USAU.S. Geological Survey Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison WI USADepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences California University of Pennsylvania California PA USAAbstract Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5547Bahamasbirdjack pineMichiganmigratorySetophaga kirtlandii |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Donald J. Brown Deahn M. Donner Christine A. Ribic Carol I. Bocetti |
spellingShingle |
Donald J. Brown Deahn M. Donner Christine A. Ribic Carol I. Bocetti Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler Ecology and Evolution Bahamas bird jack pine Michigan migratory Setophaga kirtlandii |
author_facet |
Donald J. Brown Deahn M. Donner Christine A. Ribic Carol I. Bocetti |
author_sort |
Donald J. Brown |
title |
Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler |
title_short |
Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler |
title_full |
Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler |
title_fullStr |
Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler |
title_sort |
influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant kirtland's warbler |
publisher |
Wiley |
series |
Ecology and Evolution |
issn |
2045-7758 |
publishDate |
2019-09-01 |
description |
Abstract Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species. |
topic |
Bahamas bird jack pine Michigan migratory Setophaga kirtlandii |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5547 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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