Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting

• Main Authors: Sergej Gricar, Tea Baldigara, Violeta Šugar
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021-08-01
• Series: Sustainability
• Subjects: cointegration; Croatia; external factors; Slovenia; tourist arrivals; vector autoregressive model
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/17/9659

This study considers diversification effects and significant influences on tourist arrivals as a vital export direction. Different quantitative methods, namely a cointegrated-autoregressive model, panels, sentiment and sensitivity analysis, were used in this study. The time-series data for Croatia and Slovenia were isolated from several secondary sources. The variables examined in this approach are tourist arrivals, precipitations, sunny days, earthquakes, microbes and CO₂ emissions. The study results showed that there is a severe negative effect on tourist arrivals defined by viruses. Moreover, there is a significant decisive effect of weather conditions on tourist arrivals. Nevertheless, it is necessary to move past Covid-19 pandemic discussions to yield more accurate tourism supply forecasts, while demand is already somehow low since the beginning of 2020. The primary significance is to develop a broader thinking about the impacts of CO₂ emissions on the tourism escorted to official tourist websites.