Strategy for generation of climate change projections feeding Spanish impact community
<p>Over the past decades, the successive Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) have produced a huge amount of global climate model simulations. Along these years, the climate models have advanced and can thus provide credible evolution of climate at least at continental or global s...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-08-01
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| Series: | Advances in Science and Research |
| Online Access: | https://www.adv-sci-res.net/15/217/2018/asr-15-217-2018.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Over the past decades, the successive Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects
(CMIPs) have produced a huge amount of global climate model simulations.
Along these years, the climate models have advanced and can thus provide
credible evolution of climate at least at continental or global scales since
they are better representing physical processes and feedbacks in the climate
system. Nevertheless, due to the coarse horizontal resolution of global
climate models, it is necessary to downscale these results for their use to
assess possible future impacts of climate change in climate sensitive
ecosystems and sectors and to adopt adaptation strategies at local and
national level. In this vein, the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET)
has been producing since 2006 a set of reference downscaled climate change
projections over Spain either applying statistical downscaling techniques to
the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) or making use of the
information generated by dynamical downscaling techniques through European
projects or international initiatives such as PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and
EURO-CORDEX. The AEMET strategy aims at exploiting all the available sources
of information on climate change projections. The generalized use of
statistical and dynamical downscaling approaches allow us to encompass a
great number of global models and therefore to provide a better estimation of
uncertainty. Most impact climate change studies over Spain make use of this
reference downscaled projections emphasizing the estimation of uncertainties.
Additionally to the rationale and history behind the AEMET generation of
climate change scenarios, we focus on some preliminary analysis of the
dependency of estimated uncertainties on the different sources of data.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1992-0628 1992-0636 |