Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach
A growing interest is surfacing toward the non-linearities in tourism demand forecasting. This paper aims to construct a tourism composite indicator to anticipate the cyclical movement for the tourism demand in Fiji. The time duration tackled in the current study is under the span of approximately t...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2020-0034 |
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doaj-a26678a34c4e421aa92676a65cc0bad82021-09-05T14:01:47ZengSciendoStudies in Business and Economics2344-54162020-08-0115219220410.2478/sbe-2020-0034sbe-2020-0034Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator ApproachAnn-Ni Soh0Chin-Hong Puah1Affendy Arip M.2Faculty of Economics and Business, University Malaysia Sarawak, MalaysiaFaculty of Economics and Business, University Malaysia Sarawak, MalaysiaFaculty of Economics and Business, University Malaysia Sarawak, MalaysiaA growing interest is surfacing toward the non-linearities in tourism demand forecasting. This paper aims to construct a tourism composite indicator to anticipate the cyclical movement for the tourism demand in Fiji. The time duration tackled in the current study is under the span of approximately two decades from 2000 to 2017. Apart from an indicator construction approach and turning point dating algorithm, we proposed a two regime Markov switching model to analyse the Fijian tourism cycle. The empirical results revealed the composite leading indicator accorded a signalling approach for Fijian tourism demand with an average lead time of 2.75 months. Furthermore, the prior-recognition of the tourism economic transition with adequate dating evaluation of the tourism cycle is obtained from the filtered probabilities through the Markov switching models.https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2020-0034fijian tourism demand forecastingcomposite leading indicator approachturning point datingnear-term forecastingnon-parametric approach |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Ann-Ni Soh Chin-Hong Puah Affendy Arip M. |
spellingShingle |
Ann-Ni Soh Chin-Hong Puah Affendy Arip M. Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach Studies in Business and Economics fijian tourism demand forecasting composite leading indicator approach turning point dating near-term forecasting non-parametric approach |
author_facet |
Ann-Ni Soh Chin-Hong Puah Affendy Arip M. |
author_sort |
Ann-Ni Soh |
title |
Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach |
title_short |
Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach |
title_full |
Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach |
title_fullStr |
Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tourism Forecasting and Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach |
title_sort |
tourism forecasting and tackling fluctuating patterns: a composite leading indicator approach |
publisher |
Sciendo |
series |
Studies in Business and Economics |
issn |
2344-5416 |
publishDate |
2020-08-01 |
description |
A growing interest is surfacing toward the non-linearities in tourism demand forecasting. This paper aims to construct a tourism composite indicator to anticipate the cyclical movement for the tourism demand in Fiji. The time duration tackled in the current study is under the span of approximately two decades from 2000 to 2017. Apart from an indicator construction approach and turning point dating algorithm, we proposed a two regime Markov switching model to analyse the Fijian tourism cycle. The empirical results revealed the composite leading indicator accorded a signalling approach for Fijian tourism demand with an average lead time of 2.75 months. Furthermore, the prior-recognition of the tourism economic transition with adequate dating evaluation of the tourism cycle is obtained from the filtered probabilities through the Markov switching models. |
topic |
fijian tourism demand forecasting composite leading indicator approach turning point dating near-term forecasting non-parametric approach |
url |
https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2020-0034 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT annnisoh tourismforecastingandtacklingfluctuatingpatternsacompositeleadingindicatorapproach AT chinhongpuah tourismforecastingandtacklingfluctuatingpatternsacompositeleadingindicatorapproach AT affendyaripm tourismforecastingandtacklingfluctuatingpatternsacompositeleadingindicatorapproach |
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1717809618053234688 |