Sectoral Energy Demand Forecasting under an Assumption-Free Data-Driven Technique

• Main Authors: Bismark Ameyaw, Li Yao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2018-07-01
• Series: Sustainability
• Subjects: energy consumption; Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU); energy policies; forecasting; U.S.
• Online Access: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/7/2348

In order to implement sustainable economic policies, realistic and high accuracy demand projections are key to drawing and implementing realizable environmentally-friendly energy policies. However, some core energy models projections depict considerably high forecast inaccuracies in their previous projections. The inaccuracies are due to the massive assumption-driven variables whose assumptions and scenarios typically deviate from their realized levels. Here, we propose a high-accuracy assumption-free own-data-driven technique that utilizes zero of the traditional determinants as well as assumptions or scenarios for sectorial energy demand forecasting; and implement it in the United States (U.S.). The results show that the forecast accuracy of our gated recurrent network presents an enormous improvement on Annual Energy Outlook 2008 forecast projections. With evidence that our proposed sequential algorithm outperformed Annual Energy Outlook 2008 forecast projections, our proposed algorithm will guide policymakers in making sustainable energy-related policies in the near future. Although future realized consumption levels are unknown, we present our estimated projections along with Annual Energy Outlook 2018 projections to inform policymakers on future energy demands for the commercial sector, industrial sector, residential sector, and transportation.