Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years
Pine Island Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise in West Antarctica, has been undergoing significant changes over the last few decades. Here, we employ a three-dimensional, higher-order model to simulate its evolution over the next 50 yr in response to changes in its surface mass balance,...
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doaj-a7275e9021a74df69ab1eba2c05ff68a2020-11-24T23:14:21ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242014-09-01851699171010.5194/tc-8-1699-2014Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 yearsH. Seroussi0M. Morlighem1E. Rignot2J. Mouginot3E. Larour4M. Schodlok5A. Khazendar6Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive MS 300-323, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USAUniversity of California, Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Croul Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USAJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive MS 300-323, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USAUniversity of California, Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Croul Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USAJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive MS 300-323, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USAJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive MS 300-323, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USAJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive MS 300-323, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USAPine Island Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise in West Antarctica, has been undergoing significant changes over the last few decades. Here, we employ a three-dimensional, higher-order model to simulate its evolution over the next 50 yr in response to changes in its surface mass balance, the position of its calving front and ocean-induced ice shelf melting. Simulations show that the largest climatic impact on ice dynamics is the rate of ice shelf melting, which rapidly affects the glacier speed over several hundreds of kilometers upstream of the grounding line. Our simulations show that the speedup observed in the 1990s and 2000s is consistent with an increase in sub-ice-shelf melting. According to our modeling results, even if the grounding line stabilizes for a few decades, we find that the glacier reaction can continue for several decades longer. Furthermore, Pine Island Glacier will continue to change rapidly over the coming decades and remain a major contributor to sea level rise, even if ocean-induced melting is reduced.http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1699/2014/tc-8-1699-2014.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
H. Seroussi M. Morlighem E. Rignot J. Mouginot E. Larour M. Schodlok A. Khazendar |
spellingShingle |
H. Seroussi M. Morlighem E. Rignot J. Mouginot E. Larour M. Schodlok A. Khazendar Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years The Cryosphere |
author_facet |
H. Seroussi M. Morlighem E. Rignot J. Mouginot E. Larour M. Schodlok A. Khazendar |
author_sort |
H. Seroussi |
title |
Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years |
title_short |
Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years |
title_full |
Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years |
title_sort |
sensitivity of the dynamics of pine island glacier, west antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
The Cryosphere |
issn |
1994-0416 1994-0424 |
publishDate |
2014-09-01 |
description |
Pine Island Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise in West
Antarctica, has been undergoing significant changes over the last few
decades. Here, we employ a three-dimensional, higher-order model to simulate
its evolution over the next 50 yr in response to changes in its surface mass
balance, the position of its calving front and ocean-induced ice shelf
melting. Simulations show that the largest climatic impact on ice dynamics is
the rate of ice shelf melting, which rapidly affects the glacier speed over
several hundreds of kilometers upstream of the grounding line. Our
simulations show that the speedup observed in the 1990s and 2000s is
consistent with an increase in sub-ice-shelf melting. According to our
modeling results, even if the grounding line stabilizes for a few decades, we
find that the glacier reaction can continue for several decades longer.
Furthermore, Pine Island Glacier will continue to change rapidly over the
coming decades and remain a major contributor to sea level rise, even if
ocean-induced melting is reduced. |
url |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1699/2014/tc-8-1699-2014.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT hseroussi sensitivityofthedynamicsofpineislandglacierwestantarcticatoclimateforcingforthenext50years AT mmorlighem sensitivityofthedynamicsofpineislandglacierwestantarcticatoclimateforcingforthenext50years AT erignot sensitivityofthedynamicsofpineislandglacierwestantarcticatoclimateforcingforthenext50years AT jmouginot sensitivityofthedynamicsofpineislandglacierwestantarcticatoclimateforcingforthenext50years AT elarour sensitivityofthedynamicsofpineislandglacierwestantarcticatoclimateforcingforthenext50years AT mschodlok sensitivityofthedynamicsofpineislandglacierwestantarcticatoclimateforcingforthenext50years AT akhazendar sensitivityofthedynamicsofpineislandglacierwestantarcticatoclimateforcingforthenext50years |
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