| Summary: | Abstract For an effective monitoring strategy of offshore energy systems in harsh environments, it is vital the system reliability dynamics be fully understood. This article presents the application of a Markovian process for dynamic reliability prediction of an offshore energy system. In the proposed approach, a three‐state Markovian process is developed for the analysis of the subsystem states, which dynamically determines the overall system reliability performance, overcoming the static limitation of fault tree analysis. The multistate subsystems are discretized into normal, degraded, and failed states to demonstrate the performance dynamics of the system for condition monitoring. The proposed approach is tested on a case study and the most critical influencing elements are identified. The application of the methodology efficiently identifies the system vulnerability path so as to assist in system integrity management and to provide a guide to early remedial action against total failure and downtime in offshore energy generation.
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