LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF THE SPA AND WELLNESS SUBSECTOR OF THE BULGARIAN TOURISM INDUSTRY
In the past twelve years Bulgaria has managed to capitalize on the good results achieved in certain subsectors of its tourism industry, such as the spa and wellness industry. The fluctuations in the international tourism markets due to the world economic crisis, however, still provoke hesitatio...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of the Algarve - ESGHT - CIEO
2011-01-01
|
| Series: | Tourism & Management Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/343/1026 |
| Summary: | In the past twelve years Bulgaria has managed to
capitalize on the good results achieved in certain
subsectors of its tourism industry, such as the spa
and wellness industry. The fluctuations in the
international tourism markets due to the world
economic crisis, however, still provoke hesitations
for the investors in the Bulgarian tourism industry.
This uncertainty and the fear of possible negative
outcomes in Bulgaria’s spa and wellness tourism
could be diminished if there are comparatively true
long-term forecasts for what is to happen in the
coming 10 or 12 years.
The present paper regards the application of some
forecasting methods in the spa and wellness subsector of the Bulgarian tourism industry such as
linear trend forecasting and double exponential
forecasting (Holt’s method). A specially designed
model for estimation of the weight coefficient
needed for determining the size of the sector of the
spa and wellness tourism in the time series of the
available data and in the forecast values is presented.
A time series and past period predictions have been
constructed based on statistical records since 1964
in order to test the forecasting methods presented
in the paper and to produce forecasts up to the year
2022. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 2182-8466 |