Landslide quantitative risk analysis of buildings at the municipal scale based on a rainfall triggering scenario

• Main Authors: Susana Pereira, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, José Luís Zêzere, Sérgio Cruz Oliveira, Márcio Silva
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2017-12-01
• Series: Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk
• Subjects: susceptibility; hazard scenario; vulnerability; landslide risk; shallow slides
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2016.1250116

A landslide quantitative risk analysis is applied the municipality of Santa Marta de Penaguião (N of Portugal) to evaluate the risk to which the buildings are exposed, using a vector data model in GIS. Two landslide subgroups were considered: landslide subgroup 1 (event inventory of landslides occurred on January 200)1; and landslide subgroup 2 (inventoried landslides occurred after the 2001 event until 2010). Seven landslide predisposing factors were weighted and integrated using the Information Value Method. The landslide susceptibility model was independently validated and the model performance was expressed by ROC curves. The probability of landslide size was estimated using a probability density function and the landslide hazard scenario was defined using the same landslide rainfall-triggering event. A vulnerability curve was constructed for each type of building considering its structural properties and the proxy of landslide magnitude. The economic value assigned for each building represents an approximated cadastral value. The landslide risk was computed for each building in vector format based on a rainfall triggering scenario and two landslide magnitudes. The probability of occurrence of small landslides is two orders of magnitude higher than the probability of occurrence for large landslides, which explains the higher risk generated by small landslides, despite of registering.