Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries
The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (...
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doaj-af7a24308294463baa2a6927f3e54ef82020-11-25T00:12:12ZengMDPI AGNutrients2072-66432019-06-01116143410.3390/nu11061434nu11061434Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic CountriesSanjib Saha0Jonas Nordström1Irene Mattisson2Peter M. Nilsson3Ulf-G Gerdtham4Health Economics Unit, Department of Clinical Science (Malmö), Lund University, SE-22381 Lund, SwedenSchool of Economics and Management, Agrifood Economics Centre, Lund University, SE-22007 Lund, SwedenNational Food Agency, SE-75126 Uppsala, SwedenDepartment of Internal Medicine, Skane University Hospital, SE-20502 Malmo, SwedenHealth Economics Unit, Department of Clinical Science (Malmö), Lund University, SE-22381 Lund, SwedenThe objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). A sex- and age-group specific epidemiological macro-simulation model was used to estimate the preventable deaths due to the differences between country specific actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake), and age-and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases, together with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations were performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals. The model predicts that Iceland would benefit the most by adhering to the NNR, followed by Finland. In all the Nordic countries, the highest benefit would be achieved by adhering to the fruits and vegetable intakes, except Denmark, where a lower recommended intake of salt would provide the highest benefit. For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more lives compared to other dietary components for all the Nordic countries, while for women, dietary fiber was the most prominent factor, except in Iceland. The Nordic Council should consider policies for promoting healthy eating according to the needs of each country.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/11/6/1434Nordic dietNordic countriesdietary guidelinesmacro simulation modelcardiovascular diseasesrecommended intakehealth Benefit |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Sanjib Saha Jonas Nordström Irene Mattisson Peter M. Nilsson Ulf-G Gerdtham |
spellingShingle |
Sanjib Saha Jonas Nordström Irene Mattisson Peter M. Nilsson Ulf-G Gerdtham Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries Nutrients Nordic diet Nordic countries dietary guidelines macro simulation model cardiovascular diseases recommended intake health Benefit |
author_facet |
Sanjib Saha Jonas Nordström Irene Mattisson Peter M. Nilsson Ulf-G Gerdtham |
author_sort |
Sanjib Saha |
title |
Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries |
title_short |
Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries |
title_full |
Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries |
title_sort |
modelling the effect of compliance with nordic nutrition recommendations on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality in the nordic countries |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Nutrients |
issn |
2072-6643 |
publishDate |
2019-06-01 |
description |
The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). A sex- and age-group specific epidemiological macro-simulation model was used to estimate the preventable deaths due to the differences between country specific actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake), and age-and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases, together with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations were performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals. The model predicts that Iceland would benefit the most by adhering to the NNR, followed by Finland. In all the Nordic countries, the highest benefit would be achieved by adhering to the fruits and vegetable intakes, except Denmark, where a lower recommended intake of salt would provide the highest benefit. For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more lives compared to other dietary components for all the Nordic countries, while for women, dietary fiber was the most prominent factor, except in Iceland. The Nordic Council should consider policies for promoting healthy eating according to the needs of each country. |
topic |
Nordic diet Nordic countries dietary guidelines macro simulation model cardiovascular diseases recommended intake health Benefit |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/11/6/1434 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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