Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the...
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doaj-b1d74e04060643abb45aa664d808fcf32021-04-02T18:27:04ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272020-01-015129141Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction numberJunling Ma0Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, CanadaThe initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042719300491Epidemic curveExponential growth rateMaximum likelihood estimationPhenomenological models |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Junling Ma |
spellingShingle |
Junling Ma Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number Infectious Disease Modelling Epidemic curve Exponential growth rate Maximum likelihood estimation Phenomenological models |
author_facet |
Junling Ma |
author_sort |
Junling Ma |
title |
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number |
title_short |
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number |
title_full |
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number |
title_fullStr |
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number |
title_sort |
estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
series |
Infectious Disease Modelling |
issn |
2468-0427 |
publishDate |
2020-01-01 |
description |
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models. |
topic |
Epidemic curve Exponential growth rate Maximum likelihood estimation Phenomenological models |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042719300491 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT junlingma estimatingepidemicexponentialgrowthrateandbasicreproductionnumber |
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1721551676294299648 |