Modelling age-heterogeneous <it>Schistosoma haematobium </it>and <it>S. mansoni </it>survey data via alignment factors

• Main Authors: Utzinger Jürg, Schur Nadine, Vounatsou Penelope
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2011-07-01
• Series: Parasites & Vectors
• Online Access: http://www.parasitesandvectors.com/content/4/1/142

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reliable maps of the geographical distribution, number of infected individuals and burden estimates of schistosomiasis are essential tools to plan, monitor and evaluate control programmes. Large-scale disease mapping and prediction efforts rely on compiled historical survey data obtained from the peer-reviewed literature and unpublished reports. Schistosomiasis surveys usually focus on school-aged children, whereas some surveys include entire communities. However, data are often reported for non-standard age groups or entire study populations. Existing geostatistical models ignore either the age-dependence of the disease risk or omit surveys considered too heterogeneous.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed Bayesian geostatistical models and analysed existing schistosomiasis prevalence data by estimating alignment factors to relate surveys on individuals aged ≤ 20 years with surveys on individuals aged > 20 years and entire communities. Schistosomiasis prevalence data for 11 countries in the eastern African region were extracted from an open-access global database pertaining to neglected tropical diseases. We assumed that alignment factors were constant for the whole region or a specific country.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Regional alignment factors indicated that the risk of a <it>Schistosoma haematobium </it>infection in individuals aged > 20 years and in entire communities is smaller than in individuals ≤ 20 years, 0.83 and 0.91, respectively. Country-specific alignment factors varied from 0.79 (Ethiopia) to 1.06 (Zambia) for community-based surveys. For <it>S. mansoni</it>, the regional alignment factor for entire communities was 0.96 with country-specific factors ranging from 0.84 (Burundi) to 1.13 (Uganda).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The proposed approach could be used to align inherent age-heterogeneity between school-based and community-based schistosomiasis surveys to render compiled data for risk mapping and prediction more accurate.</p>