Expected Utility and Entropy-Based Decision-Making Model for Large Consumers in the Smart Grid

• Main Authors: Bingtuan Gao, Cheng Wu, Yingjun Wu, Yi Tang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2015-09-01
• Series: Entropy
• Subjects: decision-making model; expected utility and entropy; power quality; risk measurement; smart grid
• Online Access: http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/17/10/6560

In the smart grid, large consumers can procure electricity energy from various power sources to meet their load demands. To maximize its profit, each large consumer needs to decide their energy procurement strategy under risks such as price fluctuations from the spot market and power quality issues. In this paper, an electric energy procurement decision-making model is studied for large consumers who can obtain their electric energy from the spot market, generation companies under bilateral contracts, the options market and self-production facilities in the smart grid. Considering the effect of unqualified electric energy, the profit model of large consumers is formulated. In order to measure the risks from the price fluctuations and power quality, the expected utility and entropy is employed. Consequently, the expected utility and entropy decision-making model is presented, which helps large consumers to minimize their expected profit of electricity procurement while properly limiting the volatility of this cost. Finally, a case study verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.