Estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel Bayesian meta-regression approach

Quantifying traffic contribution to air pollution in urban settings is required to inform traffic management strategies and environmental policies that aim at improving air quality. Assessments and comparative analyses across multiple urban areas are challenged by the lack of datasets and methods av...

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Main Authors: Shahram Heydari, Marko Tainio, James Woodcock, Audrey de Nazelle
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2020-08-01
Series:Environment International
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020317554
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spelling doaj-b44db31b837045db8173efebea06ceca2020-11-25T03:09:32ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202020-08-01141105800Estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel Bayesian meta-regression approachShahram Heydari0Marko Tainio1James Woodcock2Audrey de Nazelle3Department of Civil, Maritime, and Environmental Engineering, University of Southampton, UK; Corresponding author.Sustainable Urban Programme, Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Helsinki, Finland; University of Cambridge, MRC Epidemiology unit, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Institute, Warsaw, PolandPolish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Institute, Warsaw, PolandCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UKQuantifying traffic contribution to air pollution in urban settings is required to inform traffic management strategies and environmental policies that aim at improving air quality. Assessments and comparative analyses across multiple urban areas are challenged by the lack of datasets and methods available for global applications. In this study, we quantify the traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in multiple cities worldwide by synthesising 155 previous studies reported in the World Health Organization (WHO)’s air pollution source apportionment data for PM10 and PM2.5. We employed a Bayesian multilevel meta-regression that accounts for uncertainties and captures both within- and between-study variations (in estimation methods, study protocols, etc.) through study-specific and location-specific explanatory variables. The final sample analysed in this paper covers 169 cities worldwide. Based on our analysis, traffic contribution to air pollution (particulate matter) varies from 5% to 61% in cities worldwide, with an average of 27%. We found that variability in the traffic contribution estimates reported worldwide can be explained by the region of study, publication year, PM size fraction, and population. Specifically, traffic contribution to air pollution in cities located in Europe, North America, or Oceania is on average 36% lower relative to the rest of the world. Traffic contribution is 28% lower among studies published after 2005 than those published on or before 2005. Traffic contribution is on average 24% lower among cities with less than 500,000 inhabitants and 19% higher when estimated based on PM10 relative to PM2.5. This quantitative summary overcomes challenges in the data and provides useful information for health impact modellers and decision-makers to assess impacts of traffic reduction policies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020317554Meta-analysisParticulate MatterTrafficAir QualityUncertaintySource apportionment
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Shahram Heydari
Marko Tainio
James Woodcock
Audrey de Nazelle
spellingShingle Shahram Heydari
Marko Tainio
James Woodcock
Audrey de Nazelle
Estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel Bayesian meta-regression approach
Environment International
Meta-analysis
Particulate Matter
Traffic
Air Quality
Uncertainty
Source apportionment
author_facet Shahram Heydari
Marko Tainio
James Woodcock
Audrey de Nazelle
author_sort Shahram Heydari
title Estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel Bayesian meta-regression approach
title_short Estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel Bayesian meta-regression approach
title_full Estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel Bayesian meta-regression approach
title_fullStr Estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel Bayesian meta-regression approach
title_full_unstemmed Estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel Bayesian meta-regression approach
title_sort estimating traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in urban areas using a multilevel bayesian meta-regression approach
publisher Elsevier
series Environment International
issn 0160-4120
publishDate 2020-08-01
description Quantifying traffic contribution to air pollution in urban settings is required to inform traffic management strategies and environmental policies that aim at improving air quality. Assessments and comparative analyses across multiple urban areas are challenged by the lack of datasets and methods available for global applications. In this study, we quantify the traffic contribution to particulate matter concentration in multiple cities worldwide by synthesising 155 previous studies reported in the World Health Organization (WHO)’s air pollution source apportionment data for PM10 and PM2.5. We employed a Bayesian multilevel meta-regression that accounts for uncertainties and captures both within- and between-study variations (in estimation methods, study protocols, etc.) through study-specific and location-specific explanatory variables. The final sample analysed in this paper covers 169 cities worldwide. Based on our analysis, traffic contribution to air pollution (particulate matter) varies from 5% to 61% in cities worldwide, with an average of 27%. We found that variability in the traffic contribution estimates reported worldwide can be explained by the region of study, publication year, PM size fraction, and population. Specifically, traffic contribution to air pollution in cities located in Europe, North America, or Oceania is on average 36% lower relative to the rest of the world. Traffic contribution is 28% lower among studies published after 2005 than those published on or before 2005. Traffic contribution is on average 24% lower among cities with less than 500,000 inhabitants and 19% higher when estimated based on PM10 relative to PM2.5. This quantitative summary overcomes challenges in the data and provides useful information for health impact modellers and decision-makers to assess impacts of traffic reduction policies.
topic Meta-analysis
Particulate Matter
Traffic
Air Quality
Uncertainty
Source apportionment
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020317554
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