Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models
Objectives: The aim of this study was to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in Shandong Province, China, at a county level, using spatial panel data models. Methods: Descriptive analysis was applied to de...
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doaj-b7de42f7962e4dbaa38094df22d831d32020-11-25T00:45:00ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97121878-35112015-05-0134C667010.1016/j.ijid.2015.03.007Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data modelsHao Wang0Zhaohui Du1Xianjun Wang2Yunxia Liu3Zhongshang Yuan4Yanxun Liu5Fuzhong Xue6Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, PO Box 100, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan 250012, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, PO Box 100, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan 250012, Shandong, ChinaShandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, PO Box 100, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan 250012, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, PO Box 100, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan 250012, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, PO Box 100, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan 250012, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, PO Box 100, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan 250012, Shandong, ChinaObjectives: The aim of this study was to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in Shandong Province, China, at a county level, using spatial panel data models. Methods: Descriptive analysis was applied to describe the epidemic characteristics of HFMD from January 2008 to December 2012, and then a global autocorrelation statistic (Moran's I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD in each year. Finally, spatial panel data models were performed to explore the association between the incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors. Results: Moran's I at the county level were high, from 0.30 to 0.45 (p < 0.001), indicating the existence of a high spatial autocorrelation on HFMD. Spatial panel data models are more appropriate to describe the data. Results showed that the incidences of HFMD in Shandong Province, China were significantly associated with average temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed. Conclusions: Spatial panel data models are useful when longitudinal data with multiple units are available and spatial autocorrelation exists. The association found between HFMD and meteorological factors makes a contribution towards advancing knowledge with respect to the causality of HFMD and has policy implications for HFMD prevention and control.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971215000685Spatial panel data modelHand, foot, and mouth diseaseMeteorological factors |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Hao Wang Zhaohui Du Xianjun Wang Yunxia Liu Zhongshang Yuan Yanxun Liu Fuzhong Xue |
spellingShingle |
Hao Wang Zhaohui Du Xianjun Wang Yunxia Liu Zhongshang Yuan Yanxun Liu Fuzhong Xue Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models International Journal of Infectious Diseases Spatial panel data model Hand, foot, and mouth disease Meteorological factors |
author_facet |
Hao Wang Zhaohui Du Xianjun Wang Yunxia Liu Zhongshang Yuan Yanxun Liu Fuzhong Xue |
author_sort |
Hao Wang |
title |
Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models |
title_short |
Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models |
title_full |
Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models |
title_fullStr |
Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models |
title_sort |
detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
issn |
1201-9712 1878-3511 |
publishDate |
2015-05-01 |
description |
Objectives: The aim of this study was to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in Shandong Province, China, at a county level, using spatial panel data models.
Methods: Descriptive analysis was applied to describe the epidemic characteristics of HFMD from January 2008 to December 2012, and then a global autocorrelation statistic (Moran's I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD in each year. Finally, spatial panel data models were performed to explore the association between the incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors.
Results: Moran's I at the county level were high, from 0.30 to 0.45 (p < 0.001), indicating the existence of a high spatial autocorrelation on HFMD. Spatial panel data models are more appropriate to describe the data. Results showed that the incidences of HFMD in Shandong Province, China were significantly associated with average temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed.
Conclusions: Spatial panel data models are useful when longitudinal data with multiple units are available and spatial autocorrelation exists. The association found between HFMD and meteorological factors makes a contribution towards advancing knowledge with respect to the causality of HFMD and has policy implications for HFMD prevention and control. |
topic |
Spatial panel data model Hand, foot, and mouth disease Meteorological factors |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971215000685 |
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