Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties can completely derail medical research results

• Main Author: A Indrayan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications 2020-01-01
• Series: Journal of Postgraduate Medicine
• Subjects: aleatory uncertainties; epistemic uncertainties; non.reproducible findings; wastage in research
• Online Access: http://www.jpgmonline.com/article.asp?issn=0022-3859;year=2020;volume=66;issue=2;spage=94;epage=98;aulast=Indrayan

Aleatory uncertainties are generated by intrinsic factors such as studying a sample rather than the whole population and the source of epistemic uncertainties is extraneous such as limitations of knowledge. These uncertainties inflict all the findings in empirical medical research, but they are rarely appreciated. This article highlights these uncertainties and shows with the help of an example how apparently valid and reliable findings can completely derail due to these uncertainties. We conclude that aleatory and epistemic uncertainties should get due consideration while drawing conclusions and before the results are put into practice. Methods to reduce their impact on results are also presented.