Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area
The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016-02-01
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Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/483/2016/nhess-16-483-2016.pdf |
Summary: | The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan
earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on
12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened
by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was
developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an
application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and
analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered
by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The
prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a
contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of
Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for
this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false
positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than
the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction
accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution
factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the
weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction
system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan
earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and
10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the
new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy. |
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ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |