Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Backgrounds: An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of t...
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doaj-bd6c343cc4524609b1bb9ed4d7cde2002020-11-25T01:24:56ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122020-03-0192214217Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreakShi Zhao0Qianyin Lin1Jinjun Ran2Salihu S. Musa3Guangpu Yang4Weiming Wang5Yijun Lou6Daozhou Gao7Lin Yang8Daihai He9Maggie H. Wang10JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China; Corresponding authors.Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USASchool of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, ChinaDepartment of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, ChinaSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China; Corresponding authors.Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, ChinaDepartment of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, ChinaSchool of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, ChinaDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China; Corresponding authors.JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, ChinaBackgrounds: An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods: Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96–2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89–4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0. Conclusion: The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks. Keywords: Basic reproduction number, Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220300539 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Shi Zhao Qianyin Lin Jinjun Ran Salihu S. Musa Guangpu Yang Weiming Wang Yijun Lou Daozhou Gao Lin Yang Daihai He Maggie H. Wang |
spellingShingle |
Shi Zhao Qianyin Lin Jinjun Ran Salihu S. Musa Guangpu Yang Weiming Wang Yijun Lou Daozhou Gao Lin Yang Daihai He Maggie H. Wang Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
author_facet |
Shi Zhao Qianyin Lin Jinjun Ran Salihu S. Musa Guangpu Yang Weiming Wang Yijun Lou Daozhou Gao Lin Yang Daihai He Maggie H. Wang |
author_sort |
Shi Zhao |
title |
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak |
title_short |
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak |
title_full |
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak |
title_fullStr |
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak |
title_full_unstemmed |
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak |
title_sort |
preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) in china, from 2019 to 2020: a data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
issn |
1201-9712 |
publishDate |
2020-03-01 |
description |
Backgrounds: An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods: Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96–2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89–4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0. Conclusion: The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks. Keywords: Basic reproduction number, Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220300539 |
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