Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh
Seasonal disease risk prediction using disease epidemiological models and seasonal forecasts has been actively sought over the last decades, as it has been believed to be a key component in the disease early warning system for the pre-season planning of local or national level disease control. We co...
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doaj-bded4e63ee394692b31ef8fd461e2b192020-11-25T04:12:26ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Plant Science1664-462X2020-11-011110.3389/fpls.2020.570381570381Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in BangladeshKwang-Hyung Kim0Eu Ddeum Choi1Climate Prediction Department, APEC Climate Center, Busan, South KoreaPear Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, Naju, South KoreaSeasonal disease risk prediction using disease epidemiological models and seasonal forecasts has been actively sought over the last decades, as it has been believed to be a key component in the disease early warning system for the pre-season planning of local or national level disease control. We conducted a retrospective study using the wheat blast outbreaks in Bangladesh, which occurred for the first time in Asia in 2016, to study a what-if scenario that if there was seasonal disease risk prediction at that time, the epidemics could be prevented or reduced through prediction-based interventions. Two factors govern the answer: the seasonal disease risk prediction is accurate enough to use, and there are effective and realistic control measures to be used upon the prediction. In this study, we focused on the former. To simulate the wheat blast risk and wheat yield in the target region, a high-resolution climate reanalysis product and spatiotemporally downscaled seasonal climate forecasts from eight global climate models were used as inputs for both models. The calibrated wheat blast model successfully simulated the spatial pattern of disease epidemics during the 2014–2018 seasons and was subsequently used to generate seasonal wheat blast risk prediction before each winter season starts. The predictability of the resulting predictions was evaluated against observation-based model simulations. The potential value of utilizing the seasonal wheat blast risk prediction was examined by comparing actual yields resulting from the risk-averse (proactive) and risk-disregarding (conservative) decisions. Overall, our results from this retrospective study showed the feasibility of seasonal forecast-based early warning system for the pre-season strategic interventions of forecasted wheat blast in Bangladesh.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2020.570381/fulldisease epidemiological modelseasonal disease riskearly warning systemclimate reanalysisglobal crop calendarwinter wheat |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Kwang-Hyung Kim Eu Ddeum Choi |
spellingShingle |
Kwang-Hyung Kim Eu Ddeum Choi Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh Frontiers in Plant Science disease epidemiological model seasonal disease risk early warning system climate reanalysis global crop calendar winter wheat |
author_facet |
Kwang-Hyung Kim Eu Ddeum Choi |
author_sort |
Kwang-Hyung Kim |
title |
Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh |
title_short |
Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh |
title_full |
Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh |
title_fullStr |
Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh |
title_full_unstemmed |
Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh |
title_sort |
retrospective study on the seasonal forecast-based disease intervention of the wheat blast outbreaks in bangladesh |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
series |
Frontiers in Plant Science |
issn |
1664-462X |
publishDate |
2020-11-01 |
description |
Seasonal disease risk prediction using disease epidemiological models and seasonal forecasts has been actively sought over the last decades, as it has been believed to be a key component in the disease early warning system for the pre-season planning of local or national level disease control. We conducted a retrospective study using the wheat blast outbreaks in Bangladesh, which occurred for the first time in Asia in 2016, to study a what-if scenario that if there was seasonal disease risk prediction at that time, the epidemics could be prevented or reduced through prediction-based interventions. Two factors govern the answer: the seasonal disease risk prediction is accurate enough to use, and there are effective and realistic control measures to be used upon the prediction. In this study, we focused on the former. To simulate the wheat blast risk and wheat yield in the target region, a high-resolution climate reanalysis product and spatiotemporally downscaled seasonal climate forecasts from eight global climate models were used as inputs for both models. The calibrated wheat blast model successfully simulated the spatial pattern of disease epidemics during the 2014–2018 seasons and was subsequently used to generate seasonal wheat blast risk prediction before each winter season starts. The predictability of the resulting predictions was evaluated against observation-based model simulations. The potential value of utilizing the seasonal wheat blast risk prediction was examined by comparing actual yields resulting from the risk-averse (proactive) and risk-disregarding (conservative) decisions. Overall, our results from this retrospective study showed the feasibility of seasonal forecast-based early warning system for the pre-season strategic interventions of forecasted wheat blast in Bangladesh. |
topic |
disease epidemiological model seasonal disease risk early warning system climate reanalysis global crop calendar winter wheat |
url |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2020.570381/full |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT kwanghyungkim retrospectivestudyontheseasonalforecastbaseddiseaseinterventionofthewheatblastoutbreaksinbangladesh AT euddeumchoi retrospectivestudyontheseasonalforecastbaseddiseaseinterventionofthewheatblastoutbreaksinbangladesh |
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