Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre‐Dame Cathedral Fire
Abstract The roof and spire of Notre‐Dame cathedral in Paris that caught fire and collapsed on 15 April 2019 were covered with 460 t of lead (Pb). Government reports documented Pb deposition immediately downwind of the cathedral and a twentyfold increase in airborne Pb concentrations at a distance o...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2020-08-01
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GH000279 |
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doaj-bf17bcbdc6d44c19991074b2b16bdaf12020-11-25T02:50:02ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)GeoHealth2471-14032020-08-0148n/an/a10.1029/2020GH000279Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre‐Dame Cathedral FireAlexander vanGeen0Yuling Yao1Tyler Ellis2Andrew Gelman3Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USADepartment of Statistics Columbia University New York, NY USALamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USADepartment of Statistics Columbia University New York, NY USAAbstract The roof and spire of Notre‐Dame cathedral in Paris that caught fire and collapsed on 15 April 2019 were covered with 460 t of lead (Pb). Government reports documented Pb deposition immediately downwind of the cathedral and a twentyfold increase in airborne Pb concentrations at a distance of 50 km in the aftermath. For this study, we collected 100 samples of surface soil from tree pits, parks, and other sites in all directions within 1 km of the cathedral. Concentrations of Pb measured by X‐ray fluorescence range from 30 to 9,000 mg/kg across the area, with a higher proportion of elevated concentrations to the northwest of the cathedral, in the direction of the wind prevailing during the fire. By integrating these observations with a Gaussian process regression model, we estimate that the average concentration of Pb in surface soil downwind of the cathedral is 430 (95% interval, 300–590) mg/kg, nearly double the average Pb concentration in the other directions of 240 (95% interval, 170–320) mg/kg. The difference corresponds to an integrated excess Pb inventory within a 1 km radius of 1.0 (95% interval, 0.5–1.5) t, about 0.2% of all the Pb covering the roof and spire. This is over 6 times the estimated amount of Pb deposited downwind 1–50 km from the cathedral. To what extent the concentrated fallout within 1 km documented here temporarily exposed the downwind population to Pb is difficult to confirm independently because too few soil, dust, and blood samples were collected immediately after the fire.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GH000279lead contaminationfalloutstatistical modelingemergency response |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Alexander vanGeen Yuling Yao Tyler Ellis Andrew Gelman |
spellingShingle |
Alexander vanGeen Yuling Yao Tyler Ellis Andrew Gelman Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre‐Dame Cathedral Fire GeoHealth lead contamination fallout statistical modeling emergency response |
author_facet |
Alexander vanGeen Yuling Yao Tyler Ellis Andrew Gelman |
author_sort |
Alexander vanGeen |
title |
Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre‐Dame Cathedral Fire |
title_short |
Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre‐Dame Cathedral Fire |
title_full |
Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre‐Dame Cathedral Fire |
title_fullStr |
Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre‐Dame Cathedral Fire |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre‐Dame Cathedral Fire |
title_sort |
fallout of lead over paris from the 2019 notre‐dame cathedral fire |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
series |
GeoHealth |
issn |
2471-1403 |
publishDate |
2020-08-01 |
description |
Abstract The roof and spire of Notre‐Dame cathedral in Paris that caught fire and collapsed on 15 April 2019 were covered with 460 t of lead (Pb). Government reports documented Pb deposition immediately downwind of the cathedral and a twentyfold increase in airborne Pb concentrations at a distance of 50 km in the aftermath. For this study, we collected 100 samples of surface soil from tree pits, parks, and other sites in all directions within 1 km of the cathedral. Concentrations of Pb measured by X‐ray fluorescence range from 30 to 9,000 mg/kg across the area, with a higher proportion of elevated concentrations to the northwest of the cathedral, in the direction of the wind prevailing during the fire. By integrating these observations with a Gaussian process regression model, we estimate that the average concentration of Pb in surface soil downwind of the cathedral is 430 (95% interval, 300–590) mg/kg, nearly double the average Pb concentration in the other directions of 240 (95% interval, 170–320) mg/kg. The difference corresponds to an integrated excess Pb inventory within a 1 km radius of 1.0 (95% interval, 0.5–1.5) t, about 0.2% of all the Pb covering the roof and spire. This is over 6 times the estimated amount of Pb deposited downwind 1–50 km from the cathedral. To what extent the concentrated fallout within 1 km documented here temporarily exposed the downwind population to Pb is difficult to confirm independently because too few soil, dust, and blood samples were collected immediately after the fire. |
topic |
lead contamination fallout statistical modeling emergency response |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GH000279 |
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