Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China
This study forecasts Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination impact in two countries at different epidemic phases, the United States (US) and China. We assessed the impact of both a vaccine that prevents infection (<i>VE</i><sub>S</sub> of 95%) and a vaccine that prev...
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doaj-bf5f848a32054368833b05fc73d28c492021-03-06T00:02:27ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2021-03-01922322310.3390/vaccines9030223Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and ChinaMonia Makhoul0Hiam Chemaitelly1Houssein H. Ayoub2Shaheen Seedat3Laith J. Abu-Raddad4Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, QatarInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, QatarDepartment of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha 2713, QatarInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, QatarInfectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha 24144, QatarThis study forecasts Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination impact in two countries at different epidemic phases, the United States (US) and China. We assessed the impact of both a vaccine that prevents infection (<i>VE</i><sub>S</sub> of 95%) and a vaccine that prevents only disease (<i>VE</i><sub>P</sub> of 95%) through mathematical modeling. For <i>VE</i><sub>S</sub> of 95% and gradual easing of restrictions, vaccination in the US reduced the peak incidence of infection, disease, and death by >55% and cumulative incidence by >32% and in China by >77% and >65%, respectively. Nearly three vaccinations were needed to avert one infection in the US, but only one was needed in China. For <i>VE</i><sub>P</sub> of 95%, vaccination benefits were half those for <i>VE</i><sub>S</sub> of 95%. In both countries, impact of vaccination was substantially enhanced with rapid scale-up, vaccine coverage >50%, and slower or no easing of restrictions, particularly in the US. COVID-19 vaccination can flatten, delay, and/or prevent future epidemic waves. However, vaccine impact is destined to be heterogeneous across countries because of an underlying “epidemiologic inequity” that reduces benefits for countries already at high incidence, such as the US. Despite 95% efficacy, actual vaccine impact could be meager in such countries if vaccine scale-up is slow, acceptance is poor, or restrictions are eased prematurely.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/3/223severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)COVID-19coronavirusepidemiologyvaccinemathematical model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Monia Makhoul Hiam Chemaitelly Houssein H. Ayoub Shaheen Seedat Laith J. Abu-Raddad |
spellingShingle |
Monia Makhoul Hiam Chemaitelly Houssein H. Ayoub Shaheen Seedat Laith J. Abu-Raddad Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China Vaccines severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) COVID-19 coronavirus epidemiology vaccine mathematical model |
author_facet |
Monia Makhoul Hiam Chemaitelly Houssein H. Ayoub Shaheen Seedat Laith J. Abu-Raddad |
author_sort |
Monia Makhoul |
title |
Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China |
title_short |
Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China |
title_full |
Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China |
title_fullStr |
Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Epidemiological Differences in the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States and China |
title_sort |
epidemiological differences in the impact of covid-19 vaccination in the united states and china |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Vaccines |
issn |
2076-393X |
publishDate |
2021-03-01 |
description |
This study forecasts Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination impact in two countries at different epidemic phases, the United States (US) and China. We assessed the impact of both a vaccine that prevents infection (<i>VE</i><sub>S</sub> of 95%) and a vaccine that prevents only disease (<i>VE</i><sub>P</sub> of 95%) through mathematical modeling. For <i>VE</i><sub>S</sub> of 95% and gradual easing of restrictions, vaccination in the US reduced the peak incidence of infection, disease, and death by >55% and cumulative incidence by >32% and in China by >77% and >65%, respectively. Nearly three vaccinations were needed to avert one infection in the US, but only one was needed in China. For <i>VE</i><sub>P</sub> of 95%, vaccination benefits were half those for <i>VE</i><sub>S</sub> of 95%. In both countries, impact of vaccination was substantially enhanced with rapid scale-up, vaccine coverage >50%, and slower or no easing of restrictions, particularly in the US. COVID-19 vaccination can flatten, delay, and/or prevent future epidemic waves. However, vaccine impact is destined to be heterogeneous across countries because of an underlying “epidemiologic inequity” that reduces benefits for countries already at high incidence, such as the US. Despite 95% efficacy, actual vaccine impact could be meager in such countries if vaccine scale-up is slow, acceptance is poor, or restrictions are eased prematurely. |
topic |
severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) COVID-19 coronavirus epidemiology vaccine mathematical model |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/3/223 |
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