Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil
Background: Evidence on local disease burden and the completeness of case detection represent important information for TB control programs. We present a new method for estimating subnational TB incidence and the fraction of individuals with incident TB who are diagnosed and treated in Brazil. Metho...
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doaj-c0aa001c461c4b6cb201650f6ac716a92021-06-09T05:57:26ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652021-06-0135100443Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in BrazilMelanie H. Chitwood0Daniele M. Pelissari1Gabriela Drummond Marques da Silva2Patricia Bartholomay3Marli Souza Rocha4Mauro Sanchez5Denise Arakaki-Sanchez6Philippe Glaziou7Ted Cohen8Marcia C. Castro9Nicolas A. Menzies10Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven CT 06510 United States; Corresponding author at: Yale School of Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06511 United States.Chronic and Airborne Disease Surveillance Coordination, Ministry of Health, SRTVN Qd. 701, Via W5 Norte, Lote D, Ed. PO 700, Brasília BrazilChronic and Airborne Disease Surveillance Coordination, Ministry of Health, SRTVN Qd. 701, Via W5 Norte, Lote D, Ed. PO 700, Brasília BrazilChronic and Airborne Disease Surveillance Coordination, Ministry of Health, SRTVN Qd. 701, Via W5 Norte, Lote D, Ed. PO 700, Brasília BrazilChronic and Airborne Disease Surveillance Coordination, Ministry of Health, SRTVN Qd. 701, Via W5 Norte, Lote D, Ed. PO 700, Brasília BrazilDepartment of Tropical Medicine, University of Brasília, Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, s/n Asa Norte, Brasília BrazilChronic and Airborne Disease Surveillance Coordination, Ministry of Health, SRTVN Qd. 701, Via W5 Norte, Lote D, Ed. PO 700, Brasília BrazilWorld Health Organization, Avenue Appia 20, Geneva SwitzerlandDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven CT 06510 United StatesDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston MA, 02115 United StatesDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston MA, 02115 United StatesBackground: Evidence on local disease burden and the completeness of case detection represent important information for TB control programs. We present a new method for estimating subnational TB incidence and the fraction of individuals with incident TB who are diagnosed and treated in Brazil. Methods: We compiled data on TB notifications and TB-related mortality in Brazil and specified an analytic model approximating incidence as the number of individuals exiting untreated active disease (sum of treatment initiation, death before treatment, and self-cure). We employed a Bayesian inference approach to synthesize data and adjust for known sources of bias. We estimated TB incidence and the fraction of cases treated, for each Brazilian state and the Federal District over 2008–2017. Findings: For 2017, TB incidence was estimated as 41.5 (95 % interval: 40.7, 42.5) per 100 000 nationally, and ranged from 11.7–88.3 per 100 000 across states. The fraction of cases treated was estimated as 91.9 % (89.6 %, 93.7 %) nationally and ranged 86.0 %–94.8 % across states, with an estimated 6.9 (5.3, 9.2) thousand cases going untreated in 2017. Over 2008–2017, incidence declined at an average annual rate of 1.4 % (1.1 %, 1.9 %) nationally, and −1.1%–4.2 % across states. Over this period there was a 0.5 % (0.2 %, 0.9 %) average annual increase in the fraction of incident TB cases treated. Interpretation: Time-series estimates of TB burden and the fraction of cases treated can be derived from routinely-collected data and used to understand variation in TB outcomes and trends.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000062TuberculosisBayesianSubnationalEstimationIncidence |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Melanie H. Chitwood Daniele M. Pelissari Gabriela Drummond Marques da Silva Patricia Bartholomay Marli Souza Rocha Mauro Sanchez Denise Arakaki-Sanchez Philippe Glaziou Ted Cohen Marcia C. Castro Nicolas A. Menzies |
spellingShingle |
Melanie H. Chitwood Daniele M. Pelissari Gabriela Drummond Marques da Silva Patricia Bartholomay Marli Souza Rocha Mauro Sanchez Denise Arakaki-Sanchez Philippe Glaziou Ted Cohen Marcia C. Castro Nicolas A. Menzies Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil Epidemics Tuberculosis Bayesian Subnational Estimation Incidence |
author_facet |
Melanie H. Chitwood Daniele M. Pelissari Gabriela Drummond Marques da Silva Patricia Bartholomay Marli Souza Rocha Mauro Sanchez Denise Arakaki-Sanchez Philippe Glaziou Ted Cohen Marcia C. Castro Nicolas A. Menzies |
author_sort |
Melanie H. Chitwood |
title |
Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil |
title_short |
Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil |
title_full |
Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil |
title_sort |
bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational tb incidence: an application in brazil |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
Epidemics |
issn |
1755-4365 |
publishDate |
2021-06-01 |
description |
Background: Evidence on local disease burden and the completeness of case detection represent important information for TB control programs. We present a new method for estimating subnational TB incidence and the fraction of individuals with incident TB who are diagnosed and treated in Brazil. Methods: We compiled data on TB notifications and TB-related mortality in Brazil and specified an analytic model approximating incidence as the number of individuals exiting untreated active disease (sum of treatment initiation, death before treatment, and self-cure). We employed a Bayesian inference approach to synthesize data and adjust for known sources of bias. We estimated TB incidence and the fraction of cases treated, for each Brazilian state and the Federal District over 2008–2017. Findings: For 2017, TB incidence was estimated as 41.5 (95 % interval: 40.7, 42.5) per 100 000 nationally, and ranged from 11.7–88.3 per 100 000 across states. The fraction of cases treated was estimated as 91.9 % (89.6 %, 93.7 %) nationally and ranged 86.0 %–94.8 % across states, with an estimated 6.9 (5.3, 9.2) thousand cases going untreated in 2017. Over 2008–2017, incidence declined at an average annual rate of 1.4 % (1.1 %, 1.9 %) nationally, and −1.1%–4.2 % across states. Over this period there was a 0.5 % (0.2 %, 0.9 %) average annual increase in the fraction of incident TB cases treated. Interpretation: Time-series estimates of TB burden and the fraction of cases treated can be derived from routinely-collected data and used to understand variation in TB outcomes and trends. |
topic |
Tuberculosis Bayesian Subnational Estimation Incidence |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000062 |
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