| Summary: | GMS was used to simulate the groundwater pollution status during the operation period of a coastal polyurethane factory. Based on the geological and hydraulic data, the groundwater flow field model and solute transport model were established using the MODFLOW and MT3DMS module respectively by which the potential area and concentration of pollutant were predicted and the extent of groundwater pollution in the study area was evaluated. The simulation and prediction results showed that under abnormal conditions, the groundwater environment would be affected. As the characteristic pollutants, COD and ethylene glycol mainly migrated along the direction of water flow and exceeded the standard for a certain period of time. The migration distance and pollution range of contaminants expanded with time, and the peak concentration decreased with the increase of diffusion distance. After 50 years, the potential pollution area of COD and ethylene glycol would reach 225651.2m2 and 210947.5m2 respectively. During the migration process, the concentration of pollutants in the groundwater gradually recovered to the background value, and the over-standard area was reduced to zero. The comprehensive prediction model and risk assessment method of this study can help to formulate practical prevention and control measures for the protection of groundwater environment.
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