| Summary: | <i>Prorocentrum minimum</i> is a species of marine dinoflagellate that occurs worldwide and can be responsible for harmful algal blooms (HABs). Some studies have reported it to produce tetrodotoxin; however, results have been inconsistent. qPCR and molecular barcoding (amplicon sequencing) using high-throughput sequencing have been increasingly applied to quantify HAB species for ecological analyses and monitoring. Here, we isolated a strain of <i>P. minimum</i> from eastern Australian waters, where it commonly occurs, and developed and validated a qPCR assay for this species based on a region of ITS rRNA in relation to abundance estimates from the cultured strain as determined using light microscopy. We used this tool to quantify and examine ecological drivers of <i>P. minimum </i>in Botany Bay, an estuary in southeast Australia, for over ~14 months in 2016–2017. We compared abundance estimates using qPCR with those obtained using molecular barcoding based on an 18S rRNA amplicon. There was a significant correlation between the abundance estimates from amplicon sequencing and qPCR, but the estimates from light microscopy were not significantly correlated, likely due to the counting method applied. Using amplicon sequencing, ~600 unique actual sequence variants (ASVs) were found, much larger than the known phytoplankton diversity from this region. <i>P. minimum </i>abundance in Botany Bay was found to be significantly associated with lower salinities and higher dissolved CO<sub>2 </sub>levels.
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